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Elections in 2007 |
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The first four months of 2007 will witness three elections with particular significance: Senegal, Nigeria, and France. At stake in all three are vital questions of regional leadership, social change, and the stability of democratic systems.
FEBRUARY 25: In primarily Muslim but officially secular Senegal, President Abdoulaye Wade will face a host of ambitious but disorganized challengers. While Wade's original victory was hailed as a democratic triumph - the first alternation in government after nearly 40 years of one-party rule - his subsequent behavior as president, which has included limiting the freedom of journalists and even rappers, has been perceived by many Senegalese as an effort to erode democracy.
Given the weakness of the opposition in Senegal, Wade's victory seems likely. Potentially more significant than who wins, however, will be the political roles that the country's Islamic leaders take, and the fairness of the electoral process itself. Senegal is a leading intellectual, cultural, and diplomatic player in West Africa, and its elections will have serious consequences for the entire region.
APRIL 21: As current president and former dictator Obasanjo steps down, Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, and the home of more Muslims than Saudi Arabia, will choose a new leader. At stake, above all, are control of vast oil reserves, and the ethnic and regional cohesion of an intensely divided nation.
With tensions among the population over resources running high, and with violence a constant threat at election time, there is severe pressure on Nigeria's fragile democratic system. Many Nigerians are hoping, though, that the military's participation - or seizure - of Nigerian leadership is at an end. It is also hoped that Obasanjo himself will aid - rather than obstruct - democratic transition.
APRIL 22: Jacques Chirac leaves office at a moment when the European Union is negotiating such vital matters as its second attempt at a Union-wide constitution. Top seeds Nicolas Sarkozy and Segolene Royal are the main contenders, though Jean-Marie Le Pen, who made a frightening ultra right-wing challenge against Chirac in 2002, is in a relatively distant third place.
Sarkozy, currently Minister of the Interior, seems to be slightly ahead, though angry memories of his mismanagement of the Paris riots of 2005 are still strong in some quarters. Royal, who has captivated many in France and abroad (in some cases, it seems, simply because of her sex appeal), may prove the stronger candidate in the end. No matter who wins, they will form part of a changing constellation of European leadership, especially as Tony Blair steps down later this year.
As democracy continues its complex - and often precarious - career worldwide, nations would do well to observe each other's elections. In each democracy we see the reflection of other democracies, other models, and other problems.
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