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Republican Candidates 2008: Strengths and Weaknesses |
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The conservative base is highly disillusioned about their choices for a Republican candidate to represent them in the 2008 presidential election. This disillusionment is well illustrated by a statement Rush Limbaugh made last week to his massive and largely conservative radio audience, “To be honest with you, there’s nobody out there that revs me up, so why should I pretend there is?”
Historically, if a party does not have a candidate that motivates the base of the movement, they are doomed to failure. Recent examples of this include John Kerry in 2004, Bob Dole in 1996, and Michael Dukakis in 1988.
So the question then is, does the Republican Party have a candidate in 2008 that is both politically viable, and is able to motivate the specific interests of the conservative base? I’ll attempt to answer this question by giving a brief overview of the candidates and providing my take on their individual viability and ability to motivate the conservative base.
The Contenders:
First tier
John McCain
Although McCain is trying to re-position himself as a true conservative, his efforts to align himself to the left of George W. Bush in the 2000 Republican primary may come back to haunt him. In that primary he heavily criticized leaders of the Religious Right such as Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson. This political maneuver gained him respect in the eyes of many moderates and liberals, but very well may have doomed his chances of securing the Republican nomination seven years ago. The frontrunner at the time of the criticism, he went on to lose Virginia in the coming days and lost 9 of the 13 primaries on Super Tuesday less than a week later. Further complicating his efforts to remain appealing to the right wing of his party, McCain was deemed to be the 6th most liberal Republican Senator in the 107th congress by voteview.com. In his efforts to re-brand himself as a solid conservative, McCain has stepped up his rhetorical support of President Bush in the recent months and has recently attacked those who criticize the plan for a troop escalation in Iraq. John McCain’s hopes for the Republican nomination ultimately depend on the conservative base of the Republican Party either overlooking his past as a so-called maverick moderate or settling on him as the most experienced, and most viable candidate in the general election.
Rudy Giuliani
Giuliani’s performance handling the crisis of September 11th and healing a wounded nation has earned him the love and respect of millions of Americans. He also has going for him the fact that crime reduced drastically under his watch in NYC, and he was seen by most as a popular and effective leader.
Unfortunately for the former mayor of New York, some of his views on social issues are completely incompatible with the base of his party. I am referring specifically, of course, to his support of abortion and gay rights. DNC Chairman Howard Dean may have said it best in a comment he made to the New York Daily News, “Giuliani has taken positions that are admirable but are out of step with the mainstream of his party.” This sums up the extent of Giuliani’s difficulties up quite nicely. I really don’t think it is possible for the Republican base to rally behind a candidate who is opposed to their interests on such vital social issues. Perhaps if he reverses position on one or both of these issues he can make up some ground within the conservative ranks, but he would then likely be in a position much like the one McCain faces, trying to re-position himself as more conservative than he really is, with limited time to do so.
Newt Gingrich
As former speaker of the Republican House, Gingrich is a popular conservative leader who might just be the candidate the base is looking for. Currently working under the guise of his for-profit think tank, the Center for Health Transformation, Gingrich is traveling the country speaking out about the policy issues he is most passionate about, specifically health care and national security. Unlike other Republican presidential hopefuls, Gingrich has not formed an exploratory committee and has not begun hiring consultants. His plan is to speak his mind and offer conservative-minded solutions to the pressing policy issues of the day. Newt says that if people want him to run for president by the fall of 2007, he will make his decision and announce his intentions at that point. Newt certainly has the credentials and could be the man to properly motivate the base. His early strategy, however, raises a few questions. Will the conservative base wait for him to enter the race or will they support another candidate on the assumption that he will not be running? If large segments of the conservative base begin to support another top tier candidate, and Gingrich does indeed decide to run, will this split the conservative vote in the primary? As mentioned before, Gingrich currently has the opportunity to rally the base of the party and emerge as a frontrunner. If he is to do so, however, he should either announce his intentions soon or take other steps to increase his visibility in order to catch up in the polls to McCain and Giuliani.
Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney, the widely popular former Governor of Massachusetts, is seen as the likely fourth candidate in the top tier for the Republican nomination. As Governor from 2003-2007, Romney was successful in implementing his agenda of health care and education reform. Romney faces two key problems in his quest for the nomination in 2008:
1. Similar to Rudy Giuliani, Romney has a history of supporting abortion rights. As a candidate for the Senate in 1994 and for the Governorship in 2002, he supported a woman’s right to choose. Romney now claims that his thinking on the subject has evolved, and considers himself Pro-Life. Even the highly conservative Weekly Standard recently questioned his change of heart on this issue.
2. Mitt Romney is a devout member of the Church of Latter Day Saints aka Mormon Church. A November 2006 Rasmussen Poll indicated that over 50% of evangelical voters, and 43% of all voters would not even consider voting for a Mormon candidate. Given the recent dependence of the Republican Party on the support of evangelical voters, it is hard to see how Romney could overcome this difficulty.
Second and Third Tier
Some of the names being floated as potential second and third tier candidates include Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, Tom Tancredo, Tommy Thompson, George Pataki, and Chuck Hagel.
While most of these candidates seem to have the conservative credentials necessary to obtain their party’s nomination, none of them has the name recognition or national popularity necessary to make a serious run for it. As evidenced by a plethora of recent polling, their head-to-head numbers are far below those of the top tier candidates mentioned above. For this reason it doesn’t serve the purposes of this article to go into further detail about their individual strengths and weaknesses.
The answer, in short, to the question posed above, is that, with the possible exception of Newt Gingrich, the Republican party does not appear to have a politically viable candidate that is able to motivate the conservative base. While McCain, Giuliani, and Romney can all be considered top tier candidates with a chance to win the general election, none of the three has the conservative credentials or record to get the full support of the conservative movement. Truly conservative candidates, such as Sam Brownback of Kansas and others, have the conservative credentials and voting record, but lack the name recognition necessary to compete on the national level.
So, as is often the case, following a line of inquiry begins to answer some questions but leaves us with even more questions to contemplate. In that spirit, I leave you with one more question. Will the conservative base push for a candidate that truly represents their interests or will they settle for the relative lesser of evils and support a top tier candidate such as McCain, Giuliani, or Romney? Please discuss below.
Since George Bush was elected president, the religious right has felt they define the “conservative movement” and Republican party. They are a strong voice, however there is a large number of fiscal conservatives in the party that do not hold the hard line “moral values” defined by the religious right. Republicans lost congress in large part because fiscal conservatives just did not care if that bunch won or lost. Leadership carried on about flag burning and gay marriage, while deficit spending ran out of control. So the point is, there is time for this election to take shape, and the candidate may not look like a Jerry Fawell poster boy.
David -
I think you’re totally right here. Now, I’m an unabashed liberal (perhaps a little bit libertarian), but I do think a lot of the right’s economic policies make sense. However, fiscal responsibility has never been the province of either party. Seeing as how moral issues make better headlines, both parties latch onto economic issues only when it suits them.
Combined with the fact that social issues are probably the area where governments are least effective (you can’t really change people’s minds with laws), I’d like to see both parties concentrate on areas where they can make the greatest differences for the American people. Namely, our regressive tax system, instituting some sort of government controlled but privately held health insurance, cleaning up corporate corruption, and spending wisely.
A pipe dream maybe but it would be nice…
J-Ro,
You may feel liberal, but the concerns you name are right down the center of what concerns most Americans. Problem is, the solutions to these problems don’t get people worked up. The only one may be corporate corruption, most people like the CEO perp walk. Barrack Obama talks to these points some, and seems leveled headed and honest, but who knows. Big fundraiser, author, attentive father, and doing the people’s work as Senator. Something is going to give. Hope your right though, the guy who addresses these issues has my vote, and I’m a suburban father of four!
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Mr. Mike Huckabee,
Shame on you! You couldn’t remember the off color comment you made so “you had to look at the video.” And then when you saw that your comments were in poor taste your response was, “I didn’t mean to offend anybody.”
He has a name and it is Barack Obama. Your comment should have been, “I didn’t mean to offend Barack Obama.” I truly expected more from a man of God. By the way, I thought you and I worshipped the same God, however, my God would have you be honest about your wrong doing and seek forgiveness.
John McCain, I am now suspicious about the type of surrogates you would employ and if I were you I’d think seriously about the likes of Mike Huckabee. I am a God fearing, tax paying citizen of Arizona and what I have witnessed is not befitting of anyone of integrity.