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New World Order |
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History can be summarized as a story of undeviating change and renewal. With that in mind, one can safely predict that the way things are is not the way they will be. The future will deal those of us who remain a new hand, the hierarchy of power will shift, and in order to better influence the shape things will take, it is worth our while to deal in hypotheticals. As such, I look towards our neighbor to the North, and, in the assessment, see a once nondescript country on the verge of an historic change.
But first, some backdrop: another trend in history, more apparent of late, is that mankind is growing, simultaneously changing its relationship with the earth’s resources. As a species, we are asking more of Mother Earth than ever before, and the demands increase daily. Currently human population stands at an unprecedented level (app. 6.7 billion), and though the rate of increase has been steadily declining, the CIA fact book still lists the daily world population increase at a headcount of 211,090. Every new mouth born represents many things, among them another strain on the earth’s resources.
Currently one resource garners the most attention, incites more conflict, and is erroneously deemed the lifeblood of our economy, but a rational view of the situation leaves no doubt as to what is most vital. The only possible answer is water. Without it there is no life, and here on earth there is an ominously finite supply. UN scientists say Gaza will have no drinkable water within 15 years. The IIMI (International Irrigation Management Institute) reported in 1999 that underground water levels in India are being consumed at twice the rate they are being replenished. Experts have predicted as many as 523 million people in Africa may soon be without access to potable water. In short, water will be in high demand in the years to come, and that demand drives the price up. No doubt many will be willing to pay in blood.
There is a school of thought that believes many current conflicts, most notably those in Iraq and Darfur, cannot be grasped outside the larger context of their geographical location and the resources contained therein. In the case of Darfur, the arid Sahel region of Africa is an unforgiving environment, and the desire to secure access to its resources (or lack thereof) has, by most accounts, provided at least a partial motivation for the atrocities taking place there. Likewise, the situation in Iraq is often attributed to its bountiful oil reserves. So, will this looming water shortage too bring warfare along with it? It seems likely. To believe a government would balk at fighting over a commodity as vital as oil is naive, and to believe that moral stance would extend to water is indefensible. This fact doesn’t bode well for world relations, as water resources are rarely confined by lines carved out on maps.
Shared water sources means the likelihood for contention between countries is not restricted to Africa, the Middle East, and other parched locales; it will touch even the most affluent of countries. The U.S. and Mexico currently share use of at least 18 aquifers, and efforts to shore up control of water rights in the U.S. and Canada are hindered by the many resources dissecting the shared border. Canada, however, is in a less desperate situation than its two continental partners. Its rates of population growth, water usage and water contamination are consistently outpaced by the U.S and Mexico. There is, however, a more important reason; it is to water what the Middle East is to oil.
Canada on the Rise
Canada is a vast expanse of land, but beyond the area surrounding the US border, it is sparsely settled. All told, it is home to only half a percent of the world’s population. The reason? The climate of the north makes living a modern western lifestyle untenable. That, however, may soon change. Canada’s arctic is warming faster than any place on earth, with some regions seeing average increases of 3-4 degrees Celsius per year. The habitats of some native trees, as well as other forms of vegetation and wildlife, are becoming increasingly unsuitable. When/if this trend continues, more Southern-oriented species will find the Northern areas more hospitable, moving North as colonizers of the plant world. Humans will then follow the trend, and the warmer weather. (This is an admittedly simplified and selective version of what Canada faces from climate change. To get a more in-depth analysis, please see here.)
This is especially bad news for the Inuit, who have been able to avoid the eclipse of their culture and traditions only because the land they inhabit is suited for neither Western European notions of comfortable living, nor commercial development. However, as climate change begins to show its consequences, the land becomes more hospitable. Most notably, the permafrost is melting, making accessible the northern icelands of Canada. This land, seen by many as the “treasure trove,” as Peter Gillin of Tahera Mining Company refers to it, is believed to contain resources as diverse as uranium, gold, diamonds, silver, zinc, copper, iron ore, and sapphires. If the land proves to be as rich as its believed to be, foreign investors and developers will come-a-calling in increasingly large numbers.
However, there still remains the most compelling reason Canada is poised to greatly profit from a parched future. Remember that half percent of the world’s population that Canada houses? Well they sit on top of an estimated twenty percent of the world’s fresh water. On top of the, jobs that are bound to spring up in the area, the prospect of beautiful, sparsely populated space in the North, and the lure of readily available water will make Canada the world’s oasis. And, as the water shortage continues, that appeal will increase exponentially. There is a reason the Qur’an, born of the desert, so often equates paradise with lush gardens and rivers; to people without a steady supply of water, a river is paradise. With all these factors in play, Canada would undoubtedly see considerable population growth, as well as increasing attention from foreign governments and corporations.
Some already see the marauders coming. The Council of Canadians, objecting to the Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America Agenda (a proposal seen as a mandate to “negotiate sovereignty over national resources”), has renounced government discussions on the future use of Canadian water. Invited to the talks were business groups and lobbyists, but conspicuously absent were citizen groups. This has lead the Council to conclude that, “because Canada manages the largest fresh water resources in the world, companies are lining up to pump, bottle and privatize our water for their profit.” They’ve produced a brochure in response, encouraging citizens to “preserve and protect our water for future generations,” and denouncing “the continentalization of water for market purposes or continental geopolitical considerations.”
Canada’s Environmental Minister has attempted to placate these groups by insisting, “Canada has no intention to enter in any negotiations on bulk water exports or diversions. Canada has restrictions in place to prohibit removal of water, including diversion, backed by serious fines and/or imprisonment.†But many believe these laws are toothless; a plan to run a water pipeline from Northern Manitoba to Texas, suggested by the Washington-based private consulting group Global Water and Energy Strategy Team, currently breaches no Canadian law, says Council of Canadians chairwoman Maude Baird.
One roadblock to federal leniency on the issue of water exportation, however, is Territorial rights — strong at present, and being strengthened. The Yukon currently has full control of its onshore natural resources, with the other two territories negotiating for the same. With the differences in population (the territories contain only 104,000 of the countries 33,000,000 people, the majority Inuit) the possibility, and here we slip further into speculation, that sectarian strife will arise must be accounted for - in Iraq and Sudan, control over resource rich-land has played a role in sowing violence between fractious groups; there is already a movement for independence within Quebec. Could Northern Canadians follow suit if the stakes were high enough? In what may be interpreted as a foreboding move, all three territories, the Northwest Territory, the Yukon and Nunavut, are attempting to develop their natural resources in order to lessen financial dependence upon the federal Canadian government.
Perhaps spurred in part by this sort of forward thinking, Stephen Harper’s government has begun to beef up its military. The nearly thirteen billion dollar increase, spread over five years, represents the fulfillment of the Conservative’s campaign promise. In addition, the Prime Minister has expressed a desire to commission three new icebreakers and a new deep-water port near Iqaluit. These latter additions would work to secure sovereignty over the five routes which cut through Canada’s archipelago. Currently the country sees these Northwest Passages as part of their internal waters. The United States’ government has a different opinion.
Could any of this lead to scenarios such as the United States annexing the great lakes, or even invading its neighbor to North? Most likely not, but if water levels continue to drop worldwide, and once high-and-mighty nations like the U.S. have to go in search of water, there is no telling what could happen. A couple things, however, do seem certain if the scenario presented in this article becomes reality; Africans, Asians and, to a lesser extent, Latin Americans (all of which stand to be the first affected by global water shortages) will look towards Canada as many now do the towards the U.S. or Europe. The resulting influx of immigrants will radically change political debate in Canada, and last of all, Canada will have a whole lot of new-found muscle to flex in the international arena.
(For an informative hub, linking to diverse articles on water shortage and its effects, check out this site. For more information on innovative new ways of water conservation, see here. For info on the potential saving-grace of desalination, see here)
**Thanks to Mos Def for the unsolicited use of New World Water, off his album Black on Both Sides. Thanks to jackrascal for the drawing**
Illustration by jackrascal
There’s no question that water resources are going to play a bigger and bigger part in world politics. I only hope that Canada can handle the demands of being a resource rich nation better than Africa or the Middle East has. I think there are promising signs though. Most importantly, Canada has an economy that isn’t dependent on natural resources. Plus, they have a good amount of time to plan, and strong alliances they can rely on. We’ll see what happens though…
Interesting article, but I do doubt that Canada will “put their water up for sale”. With all the climate changes - everyone is going to head for Canada. It’ll be “the only” safe place to live considering Canada has all the resources one will require to live a sustainable life. Thought it a good time to buy some real estate now =)
Real estate or water resources, something is going to be sold in Canada, especially if global temperatures keep climbing!
I believe that there will be many people seriously considering to move North but I also believe that the corporations will indefinitely attempt to capatilize on the resource. It’s seems to be the nature of the beast. Sadly, I believe many people will do nothing at all and remain doing and living exactly as they are due to disbelief or ignorance. Globally there is definitely going to be a level of chaos (diplomatic as it may seem) regarding the source for drinking water. I don’t understand why people do not look all around them though? I believe the earth is made up of about 90 or 95% water. I don’t understand why businessess as well as groups funded by tax dollars don’t try to devise a method of converting mass amounts of salt water into fresh water. I don’t believe it would be very difficult to determine, nor outrageously costly.
There needs to be a whole lot done to halt or curb global warming.
I believe that there will be many people seriously considering to move North but I also believe that the corporations will indefinitely attempt to capatilize on the resource. It’s seems to be the nature of the beast. Sadly, I believe many people will do nothing at all and remain doing and living exactly as they are due to disbelief or ignorance. Globally there is definitely going to be a level of chaos (diplomatic as it may seem) regarding the source for drinking water. I don’t understand why people do not look all around them though? I believe the earth is made up of about 90 or 95% water. I don’t understand why businessess as well as groups funded by tax dollars don’t try to devise a method of converting mass amounts of salt water into fresh water. I don’t believe it would be very difficult to determine, nor outrageously costly.
There needs to be a whole lot done to halt or curb global warming.
I agree Natalie. I think with the right prices on water, desalinization will seem like the only option, just like things are starting to seem with alternative energy. I also hope that by the time we reach the water crisis stage, we’ll have learned something from our transition off of oil.
And yes, most people won’t think about this issue until it is too late, but governmentally, I think people are already starting to ponder the consequences.
I agree with you that it is definitely arlready a known issue with many governments. I just question the importance that they put on the topic. At the time being our government as well as others seem to be more concerned with war and defense as well as campaign issues.
I totally agree with you here. In a perfect world, we’ll be able to learn from our mistakes as we get ourselves off of oil and put our new knowledge to make our water problems much easier to solve. Of course, we might get to the problem too late, or not learn our lessons, or a host of other things could go wrong. I’m not really that optimistic that the upcoming “water battles” will be light and breezy. I think they will be just as hard as any other resource wars we’ve seen.
I don’t think the search for water will ever be a problem.The earth is 75% water and it will always be here. In the ice caps or the ocean it will be there. Depleated rain fall will dry out the mountains , rivers and reservoirs ,but the water wont leave the planet. I do beleive it will become a commodoty for sale to the higest bidder. Stock will be filled through reclamation and purification. Here in Hawaii we cant just pipe water in from another state when its a dry year. Theres a lot of concern here and alot of options are being explored. At this stage desalinization is comprable to solar energy. It cost a bundle up front ! and you’re not out of the red for years. It’s true that you have to start somewhere ,but lets not take our eye off the other ball and that is “keeping the water clean.” Progress in reclaiming piss and purifying it is a lot more feasable right now more than any other option,and that my freinds is scary !
I don’t think running out of water is really the issue, it is managing the resources and the expenses. If water ends up being as valuable as oil, I hope we manage our interests a bit better. Plus, water carries the added issue of being vital for human life. If desalinization become the best option, what about countries or people that can’t pay for it? What are our moral obligations there? What about water rights? As you mention, Hawaii pipes in water. What happens when that price skyrockets?
I wasnt really approaching any other point besides the availability and the production.
As far the moral question goes; I personally would do my best to see that it wasn’t marketed at all. The U.N. {yea right}would have to take the lead in establishing a rationing system. Is the day coming when we ration clean air ?
People would have to move to where resources could supply the load, or the water would have to be brought to them if location dictated supply.
I’m in a good mood right now so I dont’ want to spend too much time on the politics that would get involved.I promise you it will become political and shortly thereafter it will suck.
My point about Hawaii was that we pay special attention to this scenario because we “CAN’T” pipe water in from anywhere.If these islands ever sufferd a drought we would be screwd.So it’s an active subject around here.
More and more often we have to ration our usage a couple months out of the year.
As far as managing the resources goes ,managment would first have to consist of maintaining a clean natural supply in preference to a manufactured water supply.
But just in case! theres already thousands of reclamation facilities across the country that process sewage into water for irrigation production purposes. If these plants take the purification process 2or3 steps further you can actually drink it.This would actually save a lot of lives a lot quicker , and be easy to do because these plants can be built quicker and cheaper than a salt water plant.
I think running out of FRESH water is an issue , especially if becomes handled as a resource like oil or other minerals. I agree that poor will probably get screwed just like they get screwed on everything else.
Efforts will fall short just like half the charities out
there.And countries will use it like a queen in a chess game.
I dont think moving north will help. In Hawaii we grow sugar cane. But we pay a dollar more a pound for sugar than Californian’s. They won’t build a plant here because it involves too much change and job loss for Californian’s. Distribution and supply is a big deal here. Everybody has to kiss the longshoremans ass’s here and so its really expensive. I think Hawaii is a good example of how this issue would be delt with , even on a global scale.
Which means people would probably go to war over the water rights op just march in and try to steal it.
I mean, I don’t think the problem is insurmountable, just a lot of political issues will arise. For instance, if people do move towards the resources, you’ve got all sorts of immigration issues. And if we ever reach a point where water is more manufactured than simply found, we’ll have to deal with issues of commerce.
However, Hawaii is definitely an intersting example, and the simple fact that Hawaii will have more experience dealing with the issue than many other areas of the country means that it may well become a leader in the future.
I think a big problem is that we will wait until it is insurmountable.
After years of fighting with the pineapple and cane growers, Waihole reservoiur was finally given back to Waihole. Ownership was split years ago on an illegal buisness deal. To make a long story short, the needs of the many outweighed that of the one.The fact is , is that it should’nt of come to that point. Besides , the water in Waihole is such good drinking water , it made no sense to use it in agriculture.
We are learning slowly here , but fater than most other states. For years water mains were breaking in the downtown areas at least once a week. And the roads are constantly being torn up because of cheap band-aid fixes.
Housing growth and a new suburb every 6 months keeps our water grid in constant failure and repair.
We should not wait to see whats going to happen because it is going to happen. It’s happening in Hi. , just on a smaller scale.
The state is finally coming around to different approachs after some nasty protests took place during the Waihole incident.
That, of course, is the kicker, to get people and governments to talk about this before it is too late. Hawaii can deal with its problems, but when this erupts to a global level, I wonder how cool and collected the heads will be on the issue.
I hate to sound like the old fart here , but I’ll do it anyway, here goes.
I remember when my mother would drive down the freeway smoking “Virginia Slim’s” with me in the car, the windows rolled up and neither one of us cared. And when I was done with that “Whopper” {which in those days would feed 3} I would toss all the wrappers and cups out the window ,and nodody cared.
If you got caught trying to sell someone a bottle of water for a 1.50 , you would of quickly gotten your ass kicked.
In the 70s and 80s we started changing this behavior. But an awful lot of damage had already been done.
This should be approached as if it happened yesterday. Looking at our past what makes anyone think it won’t happen ?
Pay attention to the beverage business. That will be your best indicator of when to buy “water stocks”
I agree with you there. These problems need to be addressed well in advance of their crisis points. I’m not sure we’ll ever do it though. The free market loves to wait to the breaking point for change, and it is really hard to work against that.
you guys are not seeing this NEW WORLD ORDER for what it really is! its not about water!! read the bible. if u r christians and want to follow god, please listen up. they want u to follow the NEW WORLD ORDER which includes getting the RFID Chip implanted under your skin, which if u read in the bible, is taking the mark of the beast aka the devil. if u want to live for god at all DO NOT GET THIS CHIP!! if you want to go to heaven instead of hell: DO NOT GET THIS RFID CHIP!!!! if u think i’m totally crazy, and u dont believe a word i say. PLEASE….take 5 minutes and look this up.