 |
Conversation :: Pakistan :: No. 2 — Power-sharing is Pakistan's best bet |
 |
Stories about Pakistan—the challenges it faces keeping insurgents at bay, the legacy of its troubled President & General Pervez Musharraf, the return of its exiled former prime ministers Bhutto and Sharif, tension between its executive and judicial branches, upcoming elections and its tenuous relationship with the West—appear in a variety of news-media/information sources daily. As promised, The Seminal will be following these developments closely with this on-going series Conversation :: Pakistan, so check back regularly, subscribe our feed and join the conversation below.
Thursday :: August 30 :: Bhutto and Musharraf approach an agreement / Musharraf agrees to step down from military / Bhutto allowed to run for prime minister
According to the Associated Press, Pakistan's former prime minister Benazir Bhutto and current President General Pervez Musharraf are closing in upon a deal that would allow Bhutto to run for prime minister (currently, Pakistani law prevents the exiled two-term PM from serving a third term) and enable Musharraf to serve another term as president after he relinquishes his title as head of the military. Whether or not the deal has been completely finalized, this power-sharing agreement seems to be the expected outcome. Reuters reports:
A power-sharing pact between Pakistan's embattled President Pervez Musharraf and former prime minister Benazir Bhutto has almost been finalized, a cabinet minister said on Wednesday. Bhutto, who has lived in self-exile since 1998, has demanded a commitment from Musharraf to quit as army chief and become a civilian president as a condition for any deal, but Railways Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed said the issue had been settled.
For weeks, there were rumors of talks between Musharraf and Bhutto (in an interview with the Wall Street Journal Bhutto admitted that neither party was denying the talks, though neither had formally announced their occurrence either). Yesterday, The New York Times announced that President General Pervez Musharraf would be resigning from his position at the head of Pakistan's military as part of the deal he has struck with the exiled Benazir Bhutto. The Malaysia Sun (and other news outlets) echoed similar sentiments. After weeks of negotiation and speculation, power-sharing seems to be the route these leaders have chosen, and given the problems Musharraf has had in the past with sharing power, this agreement between two outspoken enemies seems to be the best possible outcome for Pakistan.
Musharraf's dual role as head of the military and executive branch has been problematic for Pakistan since he came to power after a military coup in 1999. As one of the United States' key allies in the "war on terror", Musharraf has neglected civilian needs, failed to enforce law and order in the southern and western regions (i.e., those regions where Islamist insurgents like members of al-Qaeda train), while accepting aid from the United States and failing to deliver the peace and security promised. (In a report (full .pdf available here) published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Dr. Frederic Grare states that nearly all of the aid given to Pakistan has not been used to fight insurgents, rather, Musharraf has directed funds toward upping Pakistan's defenses against its neighboring India. This little-known facts seems to suggest that Musharraf is manipulating not only funds but also the perceived threat and unruliness of insurgents—drumming up the need for increased/continuing aid.) As a result, with presidential elections due before the end of the year, Musharraf is facing increasing pressure from political figures in Pakistan (including former prime ministers Sharif and Bhutto, as well as Chief Justice Chaudhry) as well as from Western leaders (i.e., Barack Obama), who have not received the expected results from Musharraf in the "war on terror" and fear another al-Qaeda attack on U.S. soil. (Whether these fears are legitimate is another matter, but Musharraf's perceived failure will be a key factor in upcoming elections.)
The power-sharing agreement between Bhutto and Musharraf is one of the most likely and most promising possibilities for Pakistan's future. Now that elections are approaching, and Musharraf is committed to holding them with as little rigging and corruption as possible (both of these deceits were used in the past to keep Musharraf in power, under the guise of democracy and necessity), Musharraf is beginning to worry about gaining support and allies in Pakistani politics. Stepping down from his position at the head of the military is a crucial step in Pakistan's movement toward democracy as well as a requirement of Bhutto's return. Bhutto, who will likely resume her place as head of the Pakistan People's Party after ending her self-imposed exile, and will probably lend support to Musharraf in the election, provided her desire to run for prime minister is respected.
Unfortunately, neither leader has a good track record for providing the services and institutions Pakistan needs for its development. Bhutto's exile is a result of alleged corruption during her terms as prime minister. Musharraf is accused of rigging elections, manipulating the threat of insurgents to keep him in power and bringing the nation close to a state of emergency military rule. Following his movement toward emergency rule, Musharraf received increasing pressure from the U.S. to seek reconciliation with Benazir Bhutto—reportedly the Bush Administration's choice for Pakistani PM.
It is impractical to believe that either leader is capable of tackling all of the problems Pakistan faces, BUT, with a power-sharing arrangement, it is more likely that progress will be made. Neither leader will be allowed to exploit his/her position for personal gain while the other is watching and once they are in position, they will face mounting pressure from the people as well as the West to improve conditions and tackle insurgents in Pakistan. At the same time, although Bhutto strongly desires to return to Pakistan and reclaim her position at the head of the PPP, which was founded by her father Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, according to the China Post this agreement poses a personal risk to Bhutto. After coming to power, Musharraf amended the constitution and changed the power-structure to enable the president to dismiss the prime minister as he/she sees fit. Without overturning this law, Bhutto may remain at the mercy of Musharraf's will and whim. The unfortunate end to her father's life who was executed by another military leader in 1979, must also reside at the back of her mind as she gets ready to return.
Riddled with problematic histories, the baggage of unfulfilled promises and a legacy of past failures, both individuals face numerous hurdles and they work to create an agreement that will require them to work together toward securing Pakistan's future. However, returning to democratic rule and re-establishing the balance and function of the government's executive and legislative branches will hopefully encourage new leaders to come forward and take responsibility for addressing and overcoming the challenges Pakistan faces. Now that an agreement is at hand, it is time for both leaders to follow through with their promises. Saying is one thing; doing is another, and the world will be watching.
Who's bluffing who? Seems like Musharraf is holding more of the cards to me.
Before the Senegalese elections last February, the president met with his former prime minister and afterwards biggest rival. They had a few secret talks, and the fact of the talks was made very public but the contents of the talks were kept very secret. In the end, nothing came of it that the public could see - the president was re-elected with a sweeping vote, possibly through fraud, and his adversary was defeated.
I'm glad that you're optimistic about this situation, as you know more about it than I do. I think you've got the central point to. It seems like progress that these two important leaders are working together. However, their power sharing deal does nothing necessarily to promote democracy in Pakistan or to help combat terrorism, it only has the potential to do so. Let's hope they live up to their expectations, most importantly those of their own people.
I haven't seen much coverage of reactions in Pakistan to the "talks", but I did hear a snippet on local sentiments on NPR this morning. The people don't seem to be as pleased with the outcome as the outside (Western) politicians seem to be. They raise the same concerns you do, J-Ro. The deal between Bhutto and Musharraf doesn't necessarily promote democracy, and they sound a bit skeptical about allowing Musharraf to serve a third term as president. The next four weeks are going to be crucial. We'll see how it all plays out.
I guess you can't blame them for being skeptical. Let's hope it works out for the best.