Conversation :: Pakistan :: No. 4 — Bhutto’s Return

Stories about Pakistan—the challenges it faces keeping insurgents at bay, the legacy of its troubled President & General Pervez Musharraf, the return of its exiled former prime ministers Bhutto and Sharif, tension between its executive and judicial branches, upcoming elections and its tenuous relationship with the West—appear in a variety of news-media/information sources daily. As promised, The Seminal will be following these developments closely with this on-going series Conversation :: Pakistan, so check back regularly, subscribe our feed and join the conversation below.

Friday, September 14, 2007 — former PM Benazir Bhutto sets the date of her return from exile

October 18. That’s the day former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto will return to her native Pakistan from self-imposed exile. Vowing to “bring back true democracy to Pakistan”, Benazir faces a number of obstacles as she prepares to return.

As of today, the power-sharing deal she’s been working out with President General Pervez Musharraf is still in progress. Musharraf has yet to agree to the power-sharing agreement. Quoted in the BBC, Bhutto said on Pakistani TV after announcing her return,

“Our talks with General Musharraf are going nowhere, so we have decided to go ahead with our own plans.”

Sharif had similar plans to return to Pakistan in defiance of Musharraf’s warnings, and consequently his attempt to return from exile was unsuccessful. Bhutto’s may or may not face similar obstacles if she attempts to return before finalizing her deal with Musharraf, but I predict a deal will be arranged before the 18th.

Pakistan’s constitution still prevents Bhutto from serving a third term as prime minister, but she and her party are currently working to have a constitutional amendment passed that would allow her to serve an additional term as prime minister. However, her party does not have the voting power to pass the amendment, which requires a two-thirds majority. It is therefore seeking support from other parties in parliament:

“The BBC’s Barbara Plett, in Islamabad, says Ms Bhutto’s negotiations with the weakened military ruler are unpopular with both her party and with many Pakistanis.”

Bhutto’s successful return requires the cooperation of President Pervez Musharraf. Although his advisers have been wiling to meet with Bhutto, so far, he has been resistant to the power-sharing deal Bhutto is proposing, which requires him to step down from his position at the head of the military. But Bhutto is unlikely to back away from her position that Musharraf must step down. According to the BBC, “She says that Gen Musharraf cannot be both president and head of the army.”

Benazir Bhutto, unlike the other former prime minister Nawaz Sharif who was deported when he tried to return to Pakistan this week, is favored by the U.S. The BBC reports:

Correspondents say top US officials, who want Gen Musharraf’s continued support for their “war on terror”, feel that Ms Bhutto could bring greater acceptance to the government.

Musharraf is supposed to restore civilian rule before the end of the year by holding presidential elections and also by separating his executive leadership from his military leadership. Separating his two powers is therefore not only for Bhutto’s to return to Pakistan’s political leadership, but also for the U.S. and other Western forces to continue to support Musharraf, who is considered a key ally in the “war on terror”.

Forever an optimist, I predict the power-sharing agreement to be finalized between the two leaders now that Bhutto has set a date for her return. By setting a date, Bhutto has put a time limit on Musharraf’s resistance to the power-sharing arrangement. Sooner or later, he will fold to the pressures of Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party and its popularity in Pakistan and to Western leaders, who are encouraging the power-sharing arrangement.

Other predictions?

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