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Getting Iran To Come To The Table |
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This Sunday on This Week With George Stephanopoulos, Condoleeza Rice said that:
If [the Iranians] will suspend their enrichment and reprocessing activities, if they will come to the table and negotiate, we’ve said that we could look at trade issues, we could look at political issues, we have not even rejected the idea that Iran should have civil nuclear power. In fact, we’d be prepared under certain circumstances to participate in that. They just have to give up the fuel cycle, the enrichment and reprocessing that can lead to the technologies that can lead to a nuclear weapon.
On the surface, this certainly looks like a step forward. While the option of offering carrots to Iran instead of sticks hasn’t really been in the news, it is an approach I feel has a good chance of succeeding. However, as usual, Rice’s diplomacy leaves much to be desired.
First, Rice assumes Iran is interested in nuclear weapons, and that there is no way for Iran to posses the technology to enrich nuclear fuel and not develop nuclear weapons. Now, if you think Iran wants nuclear weapons, raise your hand. Those with your hands up, what proof do you have?
As far as I can tell, Tehran has never said they will pursue a nuclear weapon. Now, I can understand how certain external pressures would cause Iran to want a nuclear weapon. Iran has the U.S. army on both of its borders (Iraq and Afghanistan). Having our military surrounding the country, the same country where we’ve actively tried to foment revolution more than once, could make the powers that be in Iran nervous. However, a member of Iran’s negotiating team has laid out why Iran wouldn’t want a weapon, even considering these geopolitical pressures:
It is incorrect to say that Iran’s nuclear activities constitute a response to perceived nuclear threats from other states, such as Israel, or to a strategic threat arising from the US presence in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is therefore also incorrect to adduce the existence of this threat as evidence that Iran is aiming at a nuclear-weapons programme. Naturally, Iran is concerned by the fact that Israel possesses a substantial nuclear arsenal, but Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons would not reduce its fears on this score. Similarly, Iranian concerns regarding the US military presence in the region would in no way be allayed were Iran to possess nuclear weapons. The possession of nuclear weapons would neither conduce to Iran security nor in reality enhance the perception of security enjoyed by the Iranian people.
I’m not entirely sure I fall for this reasoning, but certainly if the U.S. were to withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan, the pressure would be lessened, whether it influenced nuclear decisions or not.
Of course, Bush has no plans to withdraw from Iraq or Afghanistan, and so he is forced to assume that Iran will respond to American pressure by developing nuclear weapons. Iran’s hypothetical weapons program, therefore, is a symptom of our failed wars and Bush’s refusal to end them, not a Causus belli.
More to the point, Rice uses an ineffective and alienating negotiating strategy, one that is becoming a hallmark of her shameful tenure as Secretary of State. Just like she did with Hamas, Rice asks the Iranians to compromise their entire position before even coming to the table. Before the U.S. will even discuss offering diplomatic carrots to Iran, Iran must give up nuclear enrichment. In other words, before even coming to the table, Iran must give up its only bargaining chip. No wonder Iran hasn’t taken us up on our “great” offer!
Our approach to negotiations with Iran needs to come from a fundamentally different place. First, we need to take the threat of war or regime change off the table, something Rice admits Bush is unwilling to do. There simply can’t be effective negotiations between enemies. Second, we need to shift the goal of talks away from denying Iran enrichment technology. Developing nuclear weapons consumes a large amount of resources, something that Iran’s strained economy can ill afford. The goal of talks should be to ensure Iran never feels the need to develop nuclear weapons in the first place.
Until Tehran perceives American interests in Iran as neutral or beneficial to the current regime, there will be no fruitful negotiations. To achieve that neutrality, we need to offer Iran carrots in exchange for concessions instead of asking for Iran to concede their entire position before negotiations even start. More importantly, we need to muzzle Dick Cheney and his harmful saber rattling, so the State Department and the Vice President’s Office aren’t working against each other to make the idea of a nuclear armed and alienated Iran more of a possibility.
Not that I have any confidence that Bush and Rice can get all this done. I just hope they don’t start another war they can’t finish.
