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The Australian Elections and the Erosion of Global Support for Bush |
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John Howard, the conservative Australian prime minister defeated in Saturday’s parliamentary elections, was a big buddy of George Bush’s. Hawkish on Iraq and conservative on global warming, the two men got along well:
During recent years, Mr. Howard was unabashedly in the American corner at times when other world leaders were keeping their studied distance, and his loss is likely to be particularly acute for Mr. Bush, who puts great stock in personal relations in the conduct of foreign relations.
Mr. Howard, leader of the center-right Liberal Party, was one of the most frequent foreign visitors to the Bush White House and Texas ranch (ranking behind Tony Blair of Britain and King Abdullah II of Jordan, and tied with Ariel Sharon of Israel), according to the State Department.
As an example of his fiery support for American neoconservatism, Howard attracted international media attention for claiming that a Democratic presidential victory - specifically that of Barack Obama - would represent “a boon for terrorists.”
Along with Tony Blair, Howard was known in some circles as “Bush’s poodle.”
Howard’s crushing defeat by the Labour Party, and his replacement as prime minister by Kevin Rudd, signals not only a major change in Australian domestic politics but also further confirmation that Bush’s influence on the world stage is waning. Rudd promises to withdraw a large portion of the small Australian force in Iraq, and has committed to signing the Kyoto accords, leaving the US “as the only developed nation not to have ratified the treaty.” Rudd may also move to kick the US military out of Australia:
Another potential fissure is over America’s military presence in Australia. An expansion of America’s forward basing abilities, which was part of the agenda of Donald H. Rumsfeld, the former defense secretary, has gone on almost unnoticed in Australia’s vast Northern Territory. This is not likely to sit well with Labor’s left-wing base.
Most observers agree, however, that Rudd can break with Bush without breaking with America. Australia will maintain its small military presence in Afghanistan, perhaps as a symbolic gesture of its desire for continued strong ties with America. And the bonds that connect the English-speaking world run deeper than any damage Bush’s foreign policy has done. America and Australia will be fine. The real consequences are for Bush - who in the last two years of his presidency has only become more isolated, both at home and abroad. For every Sarkozy who comes along promising friendship but offering nothing more substantial than words, there is a Blair or a Howard who steps down, taking their military commitments in Iraq with them. The next president, therefore, may not only be able to usher in a new era in American politics, but to join with a new generation of leaders abroad to usher in a new international era as well.
It’s also telling that now we’re the lone holdout for signing the Kyoto treaty.