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Pakistan Will Be Wild in January |
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Making predictions is a fool’s game. But this one seems safe: Pakistan will be wild in January.
Musharraf may have lifted the state of emergency, but rising chaos suggests that the attempted democratic transition in January will either result in another authoritarian clampdown or pervasive violence. Here are only a few troubling indicators:
Suicide attacks now occur regularly: one today, one Saturday, one last Thursday, one last Monday…
Conflicts continue in Balochistan, Waziristan, and elsewhere.
Hina Jilani, a Pakistani UN official, told the US at a recent hearing not to even bother to send observers for Pakistan’s upcoming elections.
“There is no point in monitoring the elections or watching the poll - the rigging has already happened,” the AFP news agency quoted Ms Jilani as saying.
“Freedom of assembly is totally curtailed, freedom of expression is curtailed. Under these conditions, the election that is going to take place on 8 January has very little credibility. Under Pakistan’s constitution and the law, the judiciary oversees the elections.
“A judiciary that lacks the confidence of the people and has no credibility, how do you think the elections are going to be credible?” she asked the American lawmakers.
The main opposition will participate in the elections, despite deep misgivings. This, rather than the boycott they originally threatened, is probably the correct decision - boycotts rarely help political parties achieve their goals, and indeed opens the field to utter dominance by incumbents. But in a climate of fear and distrust, the elections will be far from calm.
The US should do its utmost to pressure Musharraf to keep the elections free and fair, and we should speak out if credible evidence demonstrates that the elections are rigged. We have a strong interest in a stable Pakistan, not only because of our problems in Afghanistan but also because of overall regional stability. However, as storms brew on the horizon, many of them connected to Musharraf’s policies and actions, we must remember that it is in Pakistan, and not Musharraf, that we have an interest.
The elections will be interesting indeed. I think you’re right. Boycotting isn’t the best decision. See what happened with the Sunnis in Iraq if you want to see the peril of boycotting elections.
It’s officially January…do you think it’s safe to say your prediction has come true? Or should we wait just a few more days to confirm that civil unrest and rioting will continue throughout the month?
I mean, hell, delaying the election may mean there is less violence in the short-term. But we could see some real chaos there, a straight up implosion. What I really want to know is, and you may be able to shed some light on this…what is India’s take on all this? And what’s going on in Kashmir?