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My, What A Difference A Caucus Makes |
by Jason Rosenbaum :: Filed Under Elections 2008 :: January 5th, 2008 @ 10:04 am EST
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On December 18th, Rasmussen had Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney out in front in New Hampshire.
Today, Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton by 10 points. McCain is leading the Republican pack, with Romney trailing by 5 points.
Democrats
Obama 37 (+9 vs. 12/18 poll)
Clinton 27 (-4)
Edwards 19 (+1)
Richardson 8 (nc)Republicans
McCain 31 (+4 vs. 12/18)
Romney 26 (-5)
Paul 14 (+7)
Huckabee 11 (nc)
Giuliani 8 (-5)
Thompson 5 (+2)
What a difference a few days, especially if you’ve got the Iowa caucus sandwiched in there. I’d say this means Hillary and Romney are toast. Goodbye “front runners.”
Oh, and Ron Paul jumped 7 points.
Don’t you mean Hillary and Adolf Julie Annie are toast? The Romulan machine seems to be hangin’ in there. Just askin!
No, I think Giuliani was already toast after Iowa, and good riddance. I think Clinton and Romney both lost momentum, and that means they are both out.
I agree, Hillary is now toast. Obama gained a huge amount of street cred with his stellar showing in whiteyland. I can’t stand Romney, the cardboard cutout, but he’s got $200M of personal wealth to back his run, and I’m quite concerned he could end up being the last man standing. I hope you’re right!
Yes, Romney’s money certainly is an issue. If it were a Romney/Huckabee battle that might be a big issue, as Huckabee isn’t going to get any cash from the Republican machine. But mainstream conservatives like McCain, so I think he’d pull in the cash if his campaign started taking off.
I ‘m reluctant to dismiss Guiliani so quickly because he has been playing toward the later caucuses (e.g., Florida) all along. I don’t know whether it’s a smart strategy, but I’m surprised the candidate who put no effort into Iowa did so poorly.
No effort? He spent about 300k and made 20 stops in Iowa. He had 14 full-time staff in an office, which is not much shy of what the Huckster had. As far as I can tell, he paid about $400 per vote in Iowa, while Paul paid about $100 per vote.
Don’t YOU mean HITLERY and Adolf Julie Annie?
I’m thrilled with the 7% jump. In Iowa Paul did significantly better than most of the polls (except Zogby) predicted he would do. I think that effect will be much stronger in NH since it is an OPEN primary state. I think if Paul can poll at 14% - his real result could be as high as 25%.
On the other side, Obama is a real threat to pull away from the field. But a lot can still happen. If Clinton fades I think a lot of her support may go to Edwards and it could be a very interesting battle. On the other hand I think if Edwards fade (more likely) that almost all of his support will go to Obama. In other words unless Clinton can come back soon I think she is toast…
Thanks for stopping by Ron. I had a different opinion on your performance in Iowa - I heard you were polling at 9% in Iowa, and came in around 10-11%. But best of luck in NH, you’re certainly making the race more interesting.
Rasmussen is IVR, so it is a little less reliable. Also, if they have results already, it means they must have made calls on Friday. That’s only two days of calling (instead of three), one of which is a Friday. It is tough to reach people on Friday so pollsters usually don’t call then. These results may be accurate, but I’d take them with a grain of salt.
It’s great the Ron Paul is moving up in the polls. It means that the people of New Hampshire are waking up to the racial terrorism that white people face every day of their lives. Americans need to wake up to the fact that the ZOG in Washington has been brainwashed by Jewish, Black, and Hispanic lobby groups.
RON PAUL 08: RESTORE STATES’ RIGHTS!
And yet more proof that states’ rights is code for racism. Ron Paul’s got a lot of support, but he could use a bit less from people like this.
That’s not a person. It’s astroturf. It’s a racist charicature sock puppet created to smear Dr. Paul.
And what makes you think that isn’t a troll designed to tar Paul and his supporters? Not that the real thing doesn’t exist, but the phrasing is juvenile, textbook, connect-the-dots trolling.
You could be right. It’s hard to tell. The IP address traces to Canada, so it’s hard to imagine it’s a campaign operative from either side.
Um, quote a source douchebag. You can’t just put up random numbers and suggest they’re accurate.
What are you, Republican - or do you simply work for FOX News?
Pathetic.
Did you follow the link? Here is the source:
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/01/rasmussen_obama_up_10 _in_new_h.html
From Rasumussen.
The Paultards are an unhinged bunch that prior to this election were stalking 2nd tier celebs.
We Paultards will be in ur Republican convention, sticking pro-freedom anti-war planks in ur platform shoes, with our swing delegates calling the shots in a few months time.