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After New Hampshire, Now What? |
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Some quick thoughts on last night’s events:
The pollsters were wrong. Really wrong. Like Chris Bowers, I’m surprised. While we all love to hate on polls, they are often scary accurate, usually predicting the outcome within 3-4 percentage points. This time they were off by more than 6.
Why was this? I’m honestly not sure. I think you can discount voter fraud. I don’t trust Diebold at all, but the numbers don’t really substantiate a vote-rigging theory. It’s probably a combination of a bunch of factors, but most likely it’s just inertia. Clinton has led in NH for over 12 months, as Red Wind points out, and there were only 5 days between Iowa and New Hampshire. I just don’t think Obama’s “bump” really had a chance to sink in.
Moving forward, this means we’ve got a tight race on our hands. I think we almost may be back to where we started. It doesn’t seem so much about Obama’s victory in Iowa and Clinton’s victory in NH, than Clinton’s loss in Iowa and Obama’s loss in New Hampshire. So, who does the country like better, the underdog Obama or the underdog Clinton?
Polling on Nevada puts Clinton way up, but the polls are already over a month old. South Carolina has Obama way ahead with more recent data, and with 3 weeks to sink in. It’s anybody’s game, and it might still be come super Tuesday. Exciting, yes, though I wish it weren’t as close…
What’s your reaction to last night?
(Oh, and none of us did particularly well in our predictions. Like the pollsters, it seems NH voters taught us a lesson.)
Personally, I’d be happy with Obama or Edwards. The issue with Edwards is that, at this point, he just can’t win. I mean, in what scenario do we see an Edwards victory? I just don’t think there is one.
Now, that doesn’t mean I won’t be disappointed with Obama. I will be. Especially foreign policy wise, he isn’t what I’d like him to be. So be it. That’s politics in this country. But he’s better than Clinton. If Obama has corporate connections and an aggressive streak, Clinton has them x10.
What I’m worried about is Edwards plays the spoiler, keeping his 15-17% and handing the nomination to Clinton. I don’t think that’s about to happen yet, but if he holds out through Super Tuesday, that’s a real issue.