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If Edwards dropped out, where would his supporters go? |
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(originally posted at nirmalm.com)
There is a lot of uncertainty about the impact of John Edwards’ presence in the race. We often hear the argument that if it weren’t for Edwards, Obama or Clinton would be doing better. Yesterday, Matt Stoller discussed Edwards’ role in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination as a second tier candidate.
So who would win the Edwards supporters if he dropped out? We can’t say for sure, because we don’t know who among his supporters will opt to not vote instead of choosing another candidate. Still, there are a couple pieces of information that shed light on this situation.
In addition to asking candidate preference, the New Hampshire exit poll asked the survey respondents about their “Opinion of Barack Obama” and their “Opinion of Hillary Clinton.” Doing some spreadsheet math, we can look at Obama and Clinton favorability among Edwards voters:
| Opinion of Hillary Clinton | Edwards Voters |
| Strongly Favorable (Col %) | 12% |
| Somewhat Favorable (Col %) | 51% |
| Somewhat Unfavorable (Col %) | 21% |
| Strongly Unfavorable (Col %) | 15% |
| Opinion of Barack Obama | Edwards Voters |
| Strongly Favorable (Col %) | 35% |
| Somewhat Favorable (Col %) | 52% |
| Somewhat Unfavorable (Col %) | 10% |
| Strongly Unfavorable (Col %) | 4% |
On the whole, NH residents who voted for Edwards appear to like Obama more than Clinton. Still, there are plenty of people in the “mushy middle” for both candidates. I’d guess that Edwards voters are predisposed toward Obama, but the majority of them are still up for grabs.
Although I haven’t seen any numbers, news organizations with access to the Iowa NEP data suggest that Edwards voters in Iowa preferred Obama as a second choice.
Indeed, Edwards voters in Iowa favored Obama over Clinton as their second choice by a nearly two-to-one margin in caucus-night surveys.
Of course, these are just two small states, and not representative of national sentiment. The most recent national survey that I could find with a dataset in the public domain asking the “second choice” question is the Pew April 2007 Political Survey.
| Count | Column N % | ||||
| Q.9 I’m going to read you the names of some possible DEMOCRATIC presidential candidates. Who would you most like to see nominated as the Democratic Party’s candidate for president in 2008? [READ; RANDOMIZE] | John Edwards | Q.9a And who would be your SECOND choice? [READ REMAINING NAMES IF NECESSARY] | Hillary Clinton | 120 | 32% |
| Barack Obama | 125 | 34% | |||
| Al Gore | 57 | 15% | |||
| John Edwards | 0 | 0% | |||
| Joe Biden | 11 | 3% | |||
| Chris Dodd | 2 | 0% | |||
| Dennis Kucinich | 1 | 0% | |||
| Bill Richardson | 29 | 8 | |||
| (VOL. DO NOT READ) Other [SPECIFY] | 0 | 0% | |||
| (VOL. DO NOT READ) None of them | 7 | 2% | |||
| (VOL. DO NOT READ) Don’t know/Haven’t thought about it | 16 | 4% | |||
| (VOL. DO NOT READ) Refused | 4 | 1% |
So back in April, a third of Edwards supporters favored Clinton as a second choice, and a third of Edwards supporters favored Obama as a second choice. However, the dynamic of the race has clearly changed since then.
Nirmal is an activist from Michigan who has worked with a variety of progressive organizations and campaigns. His writing can be found at nirmalm.com
Edwardsville, Indiana. Am I right?
Ok, ok, Johnsburg, IL. Tricky question, but I think I’m right on now.
Interesting chart… - Eric Monse