Alex Thurston

Pakistan Slides Into Chaos: War in Waziristan

by Alex Thurston  ::  Filed Under Middle East / South Asia  ::  January 17th, 2008 @ 11:35 am EST

In the last two days war has broken out in South Waziristan, Pakistan, near the border with Afghanistan. Yesterday a group of about 200 fighters stormed a military fort, achieving a decisive victory. Today fighting continued as pro-Taliban militants forced the army out of yet another fort. This is open military conflict:

South Waziristan is a known stronghold of pro-Taleban and al-Qaeda militants. The region has been at the centre of fighting between the army and militants in recent months. Correspondents say the militants are now openly challenging the army in the area bordering Afghanistan. They are eroding confidence in the government’s ability to ensure stability for elections due next month that are meant to complete a transition to civilian rule.

War in Waziristan is not the only menace to Pakistan’s quickly vanishing cohesion. Today, as Pakistani Shi’a prepare to celebrate their Ashoura holiday, a bomb attack in a Shi’a mosque in Peshawar killed at least seven people. The Shi’a community reacted instantly with protests expressing sadness and outrage, and some observers fear Shi’a militants will seek revenge.

Fears of sectarian violence have added to tensions in Pakistan, where suspected Islamic militants have launched a wave of suicide blasts against security forces and politicians in recent months as the nation gears up for crucial parliamentary elections Feb. 18.

Musharraf’s government is in trouble. If the Pakistani Army is, as Barnett Rubin argues, “not just a defense organization but Pakistan’s ruling party, controlling all branches of government,” then Pakistan’s ruling party is coming apart at the seams. Worries about electoral chaos pale in comparison to the rising possibility of civil war.

Simultaneously, the Taliban’s power is on the rise. With recent attacks in Kabul and threats of more from the Taliban, the militia and its allies appear to be giving not one, but two governments a very hard time.

I fear that all this chaos will create a greater and greater vortex, threatening to suck American forces into Pakistan’s conflicts, just as our chances of success in Afghanistan are looking more and more remote each day.

The Seminal News Feed

Blast kills 10 at Shi'ite funeral in NW Pakistan
Friday, 21 November 2008, 7:40 am
DERA ISMAIL KHAN, Pakistan, Nov 21 (Reuters) - A bomb attack killed at least 10 people and wounded 40 at the funeral for a Shi'ite Muslim on Friday in the northwest Pakistani town of Dera Ismail Khan.

Blast targets Shi'ite Muslim funeral in NW Pakistan
Friday, 21 November 2008, 6:29 am
ISLAMABAD, Nov 21 (Reuters) - A blast targeted the funeral of a Shia Muslim man gunned down earlier on Friday in the northwest Pakistani town of Dera Ismail Khan, and casualties were feared among the. […]

WRAPUP 5-Major shippers skirt Gulf of Aden to avoid pirates
Friday, 21 November 2008, 1:00 am
* Maersk and other major shippers divert ships around Cape

DISCUSSION

16 RESPONSES to “Pakistan Slides Into Chaos: War in Waziristan”

Jason Rosenbaum says  ::  January 17th, 2008 @ 9:03 pm EST

Open war, yet silence in the US media. Quite amazing really, considering all the attention Pakistan got recently.

Canadian Conspiracist says  ::  January 18th, 2008 @ 8:00 am EST

Who are the Taliban and Al-qaeda again?

They used to be agents of the US intelligence services - until `everything changed on 911`.

Judging by continued support of Pakistan by the United States and continued protection of Taliban and Al-qaeda by Musharaf, it seems this whole situation is exactly what the US government has decided should happen.

Can Fron says  ::  January 18th, 2008 @ 9:52 am EST

This is funny, coming a day after the Prime Minister of Canada (he’s a Repub… I mean a “Conservative”) ridiculed the opposition leader (Democ…I mean “Liberal”) for suggesting that we need to intervene in Pakistan.

They set up roadside bombs in Southern Afghanistan, kill our soldiers, and then hide in Northern Pakistan. This has to end.

angel says  ::  January 18th, 2008 @ 10:30 am EST

Of course the news is talking about it. They purposely withhold information that they don’t want the masses to know about. I am so disgusted with the manipulation of the News Corporations.

gregory says  ::  January 18th, 2008 @ 11:39 am EST

on that land for thousands of years battles have raged, it is how they want to live, and will continue. once can have sympathy, but not much more

    Jason Rosenbaum says  ::  January 18th, 2008 @ 11:43 am EST

    Ah, the proto-racist comment. These people are just savages, and there is nothing we can do to help them! Nor would it be worth it. Very nice…

Red Wind says  ::  January 18th, 2008 @ 12:44 pm EST

I, too, have to chime in with my amazement at the indifference exhibited by the US establishment media. Hell, even the unrest in Kenya is getting more coverage than this–yes, let’s call it what it is–war.

Thanks for your attention to this, Alex.

Alex Plumb says  ::  January 18th, 2008 @ 1:43 pm EST

“Ask not what you can do for your country
what’s your country been doing to you
Ask not what you can do for your country
what’s your country been doing to your mind?”

The Avengers “The American In Me”
Lyrics by Penelope Houston

Mike says  ::  January 18th, 2008 @ 3:45 pm EST

I think everyone is forgetting that Pakistan has ICBMs and nuclear warheads. Exactly what we want al-quida?sp? and the Taliban to have.

jo blo says  ::  January 18th, 2008 @ 6:17 pm EST

Get a grip. 200 fanatical towelheads storming a Pakistani army carpark in the middle of nowhere is not a “decisive victory” and does spell the end of the Musharraf regime.

    Jason Rosenbaum says  ::  January 18th, 2008 @ 6:41 pm EST

    we don’t allow racial slurs here. please be a bit more considerate next time to avoid moderation or banishment.

William Jorgensen says  ::  January 18th, 2008 @ 6:27 pm EST

Lets face it, you can only ignore “collateral-damage” at your own peril. It’s one thing to garner local support for ground force attrition and another to drop laser-guided bombs on “suspected” targets thereby alienating everyone in the region. While US media pumps out “victories” such as “40 suspected militants killed in air strike” the local media report “X amount of women and children killed etc”. This is why most Pakistanis are either sympathetic to the Taliban or openly support them. The same effect is seen right across the world in every place where US media control is ineffectual or incomplete. Fallujah in Iraq is a classic example; while the US media was declaring the “battle” a success other world media were reporting the mass random slaughter of civilians on a genocidal scale. The other really big problem is that the effects of this kind of slaughter last for generations; which means that even with a change of government in the US America will be shunned and loathed for decades to come, and, this is exactly what it deserves.

nikolai says  ::  January 19th, 2008 @ 10:12 am EST

You KNOW the White House is just ITCHING to jump in there and escalate this, saying our stauch ally Pakistan is being attacked by the evil Taliban and Al Queda while Musharaf is saying, “No, no USA, stay OUT of our affairs!” What to do, what to do?! Oh, wait, we can’t sell the Afghans or Pakistanis any arms? To hell with it if we can’t make any money! We’ll go play somewhere else…


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