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Clinton Wins Nevada (most likely) - Momentum’s Power Limited |
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CNN is projecting Hillary Clinton to win the Nevada caucus with 59% of precincts reporting. Clinton is winning by about 6 points. No surprise here. Nevada has been Clinton country for over a year. Onto South Carolina, where Barack has to win to stay neck and neck with Hillary.
I think we’re seeing the limits of momentum in these early primaries. Most people were projecting an Obama win in New Hampshire, and Chris Bowers, a great interpreter of polls whos opinion I respect, was projecting Obama to win in Nevada. So, why have people been getting these predictions wrong?
Clinton’s average polling in Nevada over the last year has been 45%. Obama’s has been 21%. Which means in this vote, Obama’s momentum took the spread of 24 points down to 5. Similarly, in New Hampshire Clinton’s year-long average was 33% to Obama’s 26%. In that race, Obama cut the spread from 7 to 2.5.
Obama’s momentum off of his Iowa win can clearly tighten races and close the spread, but it seems this momentum can only carry him so far. It’s not enough to win states where he’s been trailing Clinton by large margins for a long amount of time, but it could make a big difference in tight states. And certainly with more momentum, the effect it has on results will increase.
In South Carolina, Obama is trailing Clinton 30% to 34%, a tighter deficit than in any other state. I feel more confident for Obama’s chances there than in New Hampshire or Nevada.
I think Barack has a great shot in SC. He’s been leading there for a good while, so that seems to fit with the current thinking. But we’ll see…