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Pakistan: Escalation on All Fronts |
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Many Americans are understandably worried about the possibility of the Bush administration launching attacks on Iran. But could the threat of escalation in Pakistan be greater? Musharraf looks like he's getting ready to crack down again, internal conflicts are broiling, and the Bush administration is foolishly thinking about intervening. All the elements are in place for a nightmare scenario to break out.
Musharraf is still offering the West his devil's bargain of antidemocracy in exchange for anti-terrorism. As his tour of Europe continues, he warns Europeans not to rock the boat.
The focus of Mr Musharraf's address, which comes on the first day of a three-day visit to Britain, was on the challenges of fighting terrorism.
"We are in the forefront fighting terrorism and extremism, our success is critical. We have to win because if we lose I think it will have an impact on the region and the world, maybe in the streets of Europe.
"So therefore we have to be together and we have to reinforce each other, encourage each other, support each other, instead of criticising and insinuating," he said.
In what may or may not be a related maneuver, Pakistan has placed its nuclear facilities on alert in response to "threats" from Islamists, despite the fact that no one is actually worried:
[A senior Pakistani military official] said the state of alert around nuclear facilities had increased, but there had been no specific threats against them.
The official said there was no way the Taleban or al-Qaeda could take over Pakistan's estimated 50 nuclear warheads.
And he dismissed the possibility of collusion from within the system, saying all personnel dealing with sensitive material had been carefully monitored.
Despite fears raised by US media and politicians, the official said the US administration had not shown any recent concern about the safety of Pakistan's nuclear weapons.
How can this do anything except feed paranoia, especially in next-door India?
What we have, then, is a situation escalating on all fronts: Musharraf is demanding less criticism from the West, low-level warfare is raging in border areas with Afghanistan, Pakistan is emphasizing its nuclear capabilities by testing new weapons and placing its arsenal on alert. Distaste for Musharraf is growing among Pakistani citizens and soldiers, and even pro-Musharraf business leaders are getting uncomfortable.
How does the Bush administration handle this delicate situation? They're eyeing an intervention, despite repeated statements from Musharraf that he rejects that possibility:
Robert Gates, the US defence secretary, has said the United States is prepared to send troops to Pakistan to fight alongside the country's forces against Islamic fighters.
[snip]
Al Jazeera's Kamal Hyder, reporting from Islamabad, said Gates's suggestion would anger most Pakistanis. He said: "The Pakistani people believe that it is only their armed forces that are able to handle the continued violence in the tribal region. Musharraf himself said that if foreign intervention is applied, it would be construed as an act of war. But ultimately, the government believes that an end to the conflict is via a political solution - not a military one - and it should not be dictated from overseas."
In this context, US intervention could provoke disaster. As I have said before, any type of Black Hawk Down "special ops" mission could backfire, and even limited "border patrol" or "counterinsurgency" efforts could spiral into a bigger - and dangerous - commitment of US troops. It disturbs me that Gates continues to hint at intervention even though Musharraf rejects the idea, making me wonder whether they might go in against his wishes. Additionally, a US presence in Pakistan would both destabilize the region further, putting our troops - with all the symbolism that goes with the American presence - in the midst of what looks like a growing civil war between jihadists and the forces of a dictator. Doing that would make it even harder to convince people throughout the Muslim world that the US is not trying to take on Islam as a whole. Finally, opening up a third front in the War on Terror would diminish, not increase, any remaining chances of success in Afghanistan.
We need to be on the phone with India every day, we need to be distancing ourself from Musharraf, and most importantly, we need to keep our cool, because more and more people connected to the situation in Pakistan are simply losing it.
