A Grim Outlook for Afghanistan

by Alex Thurston :: Filed Under Middle East / South Asia :: February 3rd, 2008 @ 10:03 am EST

Years of misguided strategy in Afghanistan may soon put us back at square one. As our NATO allies balk at the idea of increasing - or even maintaining - their current troop numbers, the Taliban are stepping up their attacks and inching closer to Kabul.

In Afghanistan, the Taleban now claim to have influence across most of the country and have extended their area of control from their traditional heartland in the south. They are able to operate freely even in Wardak Province, neighbouring the capital Kabul, as a BBC camera crew who filmed them recently found. One of their commanders in Wardak, Mullah Hakmatullah, said they do not control the roads nor the towns, but they hold the countryside and have increasing support because of the corruption of the administration.

The US is pushing for greater troop commitments from European nations, but failing to obtain them. When Gates sent a “strongly worded letter” to Germany asking for more men, he received a “blunt response”: no. At the same time, Canada has stated that unless other NATO members come through with more troops, they will withdraw their forces by the end of 2008. Given that Germany has 3,200 troops in Afghanistan, and Canada 2,500, the US’ recent “mini-surge” of 3,200 marines looks like it isn’t a surge at all, but rather a half-hearted attempt to reassure skeptical allies - and perhaps a way just to maintain, not increase, troop levels when our allies pull out.

Rising Taliban aggression will put even greater strain on the NATO alliance. With no end in sight to the mission, we are “winning battles, but losing Afghanistan.” Without a fundamental change in strategy, NATO may soon find itself battling the Taliban in the streets of Kabul, or clinging to urban centers while rural areas - the vast majority of the country - slip further and further out of NATO control. At the same time, misguided US desires to intervene in Pakistan, if pursued, may ratchet the level of instability in the region up to a whole new level, making current conflicts seem tame in comparison.

The frustrating thing about Afghanistan is that the policy changes we need to make are fairly clear. We need a sane poppy strategy, we need to talk to Iran, we need to increase our effectiveness at resolving conflict and providing security at the local level, and we need to provide material incentives for ordinary people to support NATO instead of the Taliban. The ideas that could make a difference in Afghanistan are out there - it’s just a question of whether the Bush administration and the NATO commanders in Afghanistan have the creativity and flexibility to employ them, instead of stubbornly “staying the course,” and then wondering why the situation continues to get worse and worse.