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My Super Tuesday Predictions |
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It can no longer be avoided: super delegates will determine the Democratic Presidential nominee this year.
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From this point, quick math shows that after Super Tuesday, only 1,428 pledged delegates will still be available. Now, here is where the problem shows up. According to current polling averages, the largest possible victory for either candidate on Super Tuesday will be Clinton 889 pledged delegates, to 799 pledged delegates for Obama. (In all likelihood, the winning margin will be lower than this, but using these numbers helps emphasize the seriousness of the situation.) As such, the largest possible pledged delegate margin Clinton can have after Super Tuesday is 937 to 862. (While it is possible Obama will lead in pledged delegates after Super Tuesday, it does not currently seem possible for Obama to have a larger lead than 75). That leaves Clinton 1,088 pledged delegates from clinching the nomination, with only 1,428 pledged delegates remaining. Thus, in order to win the nomination without the aid of super delegates, in her best-case scenario after Super Tuesday, Clinton would need to win 76.2% of all remaining pledged delegates. Given our proportional delegate system, there is simply no way that is going to happen unless Obama drops out.
What this means to me is Super Tuesday will likely be a wash, no matter how many states each candidate wins. Right now, I see this as a pretty even two way race. Even if Obama loses most states, proportional representation means he’s still very much in it, and his campaign will spin it that way. If he somehow wins, Clinton will likely call victory anyway.
Either way, coming out of Super Tuesday it will be a dead heat. The good news: Every primary vote in the nation is likely to count, as this process will go on for a while. The bad news: As Bowers points out, we might see a brokered convention, with the nominee decided by super delegates in back rooms as opposed to the people in open votes. Not to mention the situation with Michigan and Florida delegates. If it does get to that point, it’ll be messy.
So, my prediction? Hillary wins most states, but the popular vote is so close we’ve still got a race.
Got a predictions? Lay it on me.
