 |
Pakistan’s Elections: Countdown to Chaos |
 |
In less than five days, Pakistan will hold long-delayed parliamentary elections. But violence has already begun:
At least two people have been killed and three injured after a roadside bomb attack on an election campaign convoy in Pakistan’s northwestern Swat valley. The blast is the latest in a string of deadly attacks in the region in the run up to the general election next week.
[snip]
The latest deaths will increase fears of security in the run-up to the election on February 18 for which tens of thousands of extra military troops will be deployed nationwide.Two suicide bomb attacks on election rallies in different parts of northwest Pakistan have killed at least 22 people and wounded more than 30 in the past week alone.
Add to that BBC polls indicating that support for Musharraf is bottoming out, and you have a recipe for real problems.
Almost half the respondents said they thought his controversial re-election last November was not valid.
[snip]
The results of the latest poll found a particularly low approval rating for his performance. Only 15% of people asked said they approved of the job he was doing, while 72% disapproved. That compared with an approval rate of 30% at the end of last year. Three-quarters of the people asked said they would like him to resign. That number too has increased. His overall popularity rating had also declined (by 12 points) since the last survey.
Of course, Condoleezza is “concerned. She should be. In the election that is supposed to “complete a transition to civilian rule in Pakistan,” Bhutto’s PPP party is already raising fears of fraud. If the country explodes into post-election violence, it could make what’s happening in Kenya seem tame in comparison.
Things are changing in Pakistan. The army, under its new commander Kayani, is withdrawing its personnel from civilian offices in a reversal of old Musharraf policy - and a possible attempt to distance itself from him. Tribal areas remain dicey, and not fully under government control (to say the least). And, to add to everyone’s comfort level, the government is testing short-range nuclear-capable missiles.
Predictions are a fool’s game. But I’ll hazard a guess that next week will be bad. Fraud seems inevitable, and that will provoke a vehemently angry response from the opposition parties and the population as a whole. Violence will likely escalate. Then the ball will be in Musharraf’s court, which has historically not been pretty. After that, anyone’s guess - but hopes for stability seem slim.
So, do you think he’ll “win” the election? I mean, Musharraf has to know how unpopular he is. It’s hard to think he’d walk right into that kind of hornet’s nest…
I mean, it’s parliamentary elections so what “winning” is, is more debatable. But I think the results will be favorable to him and unfavorable to the opposition. Then I think they’ll denounce it. Then I think there may be a crackdown.
Also, everyone is saying turnout will be shockingly low. So the results seem like they will in no way represent what the majority of Pakistanis want.