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MN-Sen: Franken’s Momentum and Recent Polling |
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Since last week’s landslide straw poll victory for Al Franken, polling and aggressive campaigning have both picked up considerably.
First, here’s the latest polling.
KSTP, the Twin Cities ABC affiliate has the race between Coleman and Franken in a statistical dead heat:
According to 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS’ exclusive Survey USA Poll of 650 registered voters, Coleman holds just a one-point edge in a statistical dead heat against Democratic Party front-runner, Franken.Eight percent of voters said they remain undecided.
The poll shows Coleman leading by 16 points among men and young voters.
Franken leads by 12 points among women and voters over the age of 50.
Survey USA had similar numbers a few days prior:
In a hypothetical head-to-head election for United States Senator from Minnesota today, 02/12/08, 38 weeks to the vote, DFL challenger Al Franken runs stronger against incumbent Republican Norm Coleman than do DFL candidates Mike Ciresi, Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer or Darryl Stanton, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis. Today: Coleman and Franken tie, 47% to 46%. Coleman defeats Ciresi 51% to 40%; Coleman defeats Nelson-Pallmeyer 58% to 30%; Coleman defeats Darryl Stanton 58% to 29%.
Joe Bodell at Minnesota Campaign Report hilariously points out that around 30% of Minnesota voters would prefer a “tasty burrito” to Norm Coleman, as long as that burrito had a D next to its name.
The other big news in the race is the fact that Mike Ciresi is stepping up the attacks on Al Franken in the Democratic primary, saying things like “Al Franken has made a living calling people names.” As MNpublius points out, Ciresi, a trial lawyer, may not get the effects he is hoping for.
Do you really think that attacking Al Franken is the best way to highlight your strengths, and do you really think that increasing the volume and tone of your attacks is going to make up any real or perceived ground you lost on caucus night?More importantly, much more importantly, I know as a superdelegate I don’t like to see this kind of catty attack and I’m not alone.
Finally, MNBlue reminds us that Norm Coleman’s support of John McCain was not enough to push the Senator over the top in the state, where he lost to Mitt Romney 41-22.
I’d rather have a tasty burrito over a lot of politicians. I mean, hell, for some I’d settle for a lukewarm burrito with extra, albeit kind-of-melted shredded cheese.
How about a handful of tortilla chips and some cheese whiz?
Franken only polls so high because he has name recognition. In reality Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer is a better candidate, with firm progressive stances on every issues, far better suited to the needs and positions of DFL voters and the Minnesota public as a whole.
Thanks for stopping by, Gerbal.
Let’s hope that he is able to gain some traction, and at the very least, pull Franken further to the left.
Coleman leads with young voters? The world turned upside down, indeed.
I’d say that is likely to change, as the campaign progresses.
In delegate strength it looks like Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer has pulled ahead of Ciresi. He’s doing it on a lot less money. Shows me something.
On the MPR candidate finder, Jack leads the other candidates, including Coleman. He’s clearly got the issues and is the candidate people who get to know him like the most.
Most Minnesotans are not engaged in the Senate race yet.Franken’s current lead (in polling) is based on fame and fundraising fortune. People can’t claim support for a candidate they are not aware of. I don’t think that is enough substance to defeat Norm Coleman.
I think the candidate that people more closely align with wins. I think the candidate who is the real deal in terms of integrity and courage wins. That candidate is clearly Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, if the delegates to the state convention are smart enough to go with him.
I think the shocker for me on precinct caucus night was how few people were supporting Mike Ciresi. I heard about a strong showing in one precinct near downtown St Paul, but in nearly every other precinct where there was a straw poll, Ciresi was nearly a non-factor. I would have to say that the remaining contest seems to be between Al Franken and Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer.
It also looks like Franken’s support is pretty wide because of his celebrity, but fairly thin. I have heard several stories where precincts had more spaces for Franken delegates at their Senate District conventions than Franken supporters who were willing to actually go. Similarly, several precincts that didn’t have a straw poll or proportional voting, but merely asked who wanted to be a delegate, those precincts often had Jack supporters jumping out of their seats. Franken supporters, on the other hand, held back.
This is all horse-race stuff, though. It doesn’t really have much to do with the person who would make the best Senator. In my opinion, Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer is the clear front-runner there. So the challenge is to have him be better known.