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New Texas Dem Primary Poll has Obama up 48-42 |
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Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among self-described Democrats 47% to 42%. Obama leads Clinton among self-described independents and Republicans 24% to 71%. Obama leads among men 55% to 29% (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads among women 54% to 42%. Clinton leads Obama among white voters 51% to 40% (53% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 76% to 17% (22% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Clinton leads Obama among Latino voters 44% to 42%.
While this is good news (for Obama supporters), it is quite an aberration. Rasmussen still has Senator Clinton up by 16%.
Given the current delegate count and proportional allocation of delegates, I’d call anything within 10% in both Ohio and Texas victories for Obama. If he can split the delegates in those two states, or carry them, there is no legitimate path to the nomination for Senator Clinton.
Update: Election Inspection has a great rundown of how delegates are allocated in Texas. It is a very confusing process, but EI explains it well.
Another Update: Karl-Thomas Musselman at Burnt Orange Report shows how a previous poll (HRC 49 - BHO 41) with Hillary in the lead could still net Obama more delegates. Texas is looking more and more encouraging, to me.
Texas has got a pretty crazy system though, right? They have a primary and a caucus, I believe.
I could see Obama doing pretty well in Texas, maybe even winning. If he won in Ohio though, that would be a huge upset.
That is correct.
Texas has 193 pledged delegates.
126 of these are chosen proportionally in 31 separate primaries on 3/4. 67 are chosen in caucuses, 25 of which go to local party leaders.
Either way, given Obama’s success in organizing for Caucuses, this bodes well for the Senator from Illinois. If he can come close in the primaries, and win the caucuses, he may take more delegates in the state, setting Hillary up for a steep climb in OH/PA.
The polls seem to be all over the place today. While some show Obama surging ahead in Texas, others show Clinton closing the gap in Wisconsin. But if Obama can hold onto Wisconsin and wind Texas, I think the super delegates will be shifting over to Obama in droves and that the race for the nomination is over.
The polls indeed are all over the place. Polls often are, but I think we’ve got a particularly bad situation this year. Pollsters are having a really hard time estimating turnout, as it’s breaking all records, and the race is so close people are having a hard time making up their mind.
While I personally think it would be a longshot for Obama to win both Texas and Ohio, it definitely could happen.
I’d be very happy if he won Wisconsin and just one of the big three–Texas, Ohio, or Pennsylvania. I think that if Obama won just one of them, the super delegates would not deny him the nod.