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Massive Rigging is the Only Way Musharraf Can Lose |
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The question regarding Monday's general election in Pakistan was never whether there would rigging; the question was always about how intense the rigging would be. Human Rights Watch now predicts "massive" rigging, and it appears the military have already moved their forces into place to prevent (or at least curtail) post-election violence.
Rigging will not secure greater power for Musharraf but will only undermine the power he currently holds. With no clear party or political leader able to secure a majority of the country's votes and wide-spread disagreement and factionalism between groups (which would prevent the institution of a secure coalition-based government), Musharraf will be able to maintain his hold on power without lifting a finger.
With Mister "Ten Percent" Zardari at the head of Bhutto's People's Party, there is a slim chance the party would be able to carry a majority outside Bhutto's home province of Sindh. Following Bhutto's death and the nepotistic passing of the party's reigns to Bhutto's son via her widower, the PPP lacks the national popularity it needs to carry a national electoral victory. The problem the PPP might have posed (after Bhutto discontinued her power-sharing negotiations with Musharraf and before her assassination) to Musharraf has all but evaporated. (Some, like Christine Fair of Rand Corp., even say it never existed.)
Outside of Sindh, the situation is uncertain. The unanimous support the PPP thinks it deserves after Bhuto's assassination doesn't seem to exist elsewhere, and historically the party has never held sway in some provinces. The chances of having to accept a transparent verdict that advocates his resignation seems unlikely as no clear victor will emerge after Monday's voting.
Therefore, if Musharraf allows the polling to proceed without interference, the population will demonstrate that none of the parties nor their leaders has the ability to unite the nation, carry a majority or threaten Musharraf's control. Massive election rigging is, in fact, the only way Musharraf's power can be undermined for the people will only rise up in unison to oppose Musharraf's interference with their right to vote.
By holding free and fair elections, Musharraf stands to gain the credibility he currently lacks. Not only will he be able to turn to the West and say "See, Pakistan is on the road to Democracy" but out of the inter-party disputes that will arise during the process of forming a coalition government, Musharraf will also prove that he is the only man capable of holding Pakistan together.
Democracy is in Pakistan's best interests. It is the best way to curb terrorism and the only way to protect its coveted position as America's most important ally in the "war on terror." Election rigging will lead to a more massive outburst of violence and discontent than Pakistan faced following Bhutto's death, and with Musharraf's attention turned toward keeping the people at peace, all efforts to fight terrorism will come to a screeching halt, leading to an undesired chain of events involving more military rule and more US military intervention on Pakistan's side of the border with Afghanistan. The outcome would not be pretty and would not be an effective way to stay in power.
Finally, it seems Musharraf and democracy might be on the same side; either they both will be victorious after today's votes are counted or the fate of Pakistan will be irreconcilably lost in the mires of domestic and international crises.
Interesting hypothesis. They more I think about it, the more it makes sense. With the turmoil after Bhutto's death, it is unlikely we'll get the kind of leader needed to unite Pakistan, which means we're stuck with the authoritarian Musharraf for a while…