Forget The Experience, The Sexism, and the Delegate Counts. Obama Is Just More Compelling.

On Caucus day here in Seattle, I did some informal exit polling. Here’s what I did: I saw a woman wearing an Obama button and asked her how the vote turned out. Her reply was that Obama won 97% of my neighborhood.

Seattle loves Obama, evidenced by 18,000 people packing Key Arena and another 3,000 standing outside, at 11am…on a Friday. It was a marvelous thing to see. Normally candidates get this kind of crowd two weeks before an election, not the day before a freakin' caucus. This guy is huge. Bono huge.

The Real McCain doesn’t want to run against Barack Obama because, well, he’d lose. When McCain attacks Obama during his victory speeches, he’s actually helping Clinton because McCain could very easily beat Clinton. Don’t believe me? Let’s pick a state. How about, umm, Minnesota.

Minnesota was the only state in 1984 to not vote for Reagan. Let’s look at the matchups: McCain, according to polling data I believe to be quite accurate, is leading Clinton by 5 points. Let’s switch it up: That same poll has McCain losing to Obama by 15 points. So, I ask you this, if McCain could win there with his appeal to conservative/moderate Democrats and Independents, what makes you think he wouldn’t play in Florida/Pennsylvania/Ohio (if you win those 3 you are President, trust me).

So yes, McCain could win, and if Hillary is the nominee he probably will. Not too sure about my Minnesota information? Let’s sweeten the pot: Al Franken (yes that Al Franken - Air America liberal lion comedian) is leading over Senator Norm “I used to be a Democrat” Coleman, but McCain would still win the state if he’s running against Clinton. Hillary’s nomination would be a disaster, and a lot of people would just stay home and accept it.

On top of that, Obama’s campaign runs so smoothly, whereas Clintons is in what appears to be constant disarray. You can tell a lot of about someone by the company they keep, and if there’s one thing the Clintons do a lot of is keep trusted loyal people around them as opposed to, say, the best person for the job. Sound familiar? It’s what the Bush’s do as well.

Everyone, advisers/consultants/ad makers/speech writers/assistants and so on, in Clinton’s current campaign are either from President Clinton’s staff, his 92/96 staff, or Hillary’s staff when she was First Lady. Wonder why the ideas sound the same? Mark Penn, Hillary’s adviser and Bill’s adviser in 92/96, is a smart guy, but it may be a little late to switch ideas. They should’ve bagged that experience garbage after Super Tuesday.

To give an example of how bad the experience line is, former President Clinton stated that Senator Obama “Had nothing to do with the advances made in the 90’s” which, although a reasonable assertion, begs for the response: “Is it 1996 or is it 2008? Were we in a war then and are we in a war now?” Experience, 10 years ago, doesn’t mean much when you really, REALLY, sit down and think about it. If Senator Clinton’s main argument is experience just imagine a debate in which Senator McCain stated, “my opponent claims experience, but as a war veteran and member of Congress for over 20 years I think I have the experience that she’s talking about and then some.”

To go with that, my friend Alexis said something very interesting that I’d like to share: She referred to politics and the people in politics as essentially an “old boys club.” She then said something very interesting, “It’s an old boys club and Hillary is just one of the old boys.”

I agree with her, and I don’t think the reason Hillary is losing has anything to do the fact that she is a woman, it has to do with the fact that she is, as my good friend Connor would say, “old hat.” She’s boring, and not just in the public speaking area (good god, she is horrendous in the speech giving department). She’s an obtuse candidate, and she’s running against and attacking someone who makes people excited about politics, something a lot of people - most everyone I know - didn’t care about for a long time.

In short, I think Obama will win in both Ohio and Texas by more than 5 points. Screw the delegate count, it’s over. I don’t care how close it is, if she loses those two states it’s just over. In fact I think it’s already over. I’m tired of delegate counting, and I’m tired of the Clintons' arrogance. The only thing Bill Clinton has done during this campaign is damage his reputation.

The campaign essentially boils down to this: Obama is like your favorite band playing a free show with Bono as a special guest. Clinton is like a Ratt reunion show that costs $20 and the band, of course, goes on stage really late and plays like shit. I guess I could’ve picked an awful chick band (Spice Girls) to represent Clinton, but that would’ve been sexist, wouldn’t it?

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