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What is the relationship between primary turnout and general election outcomes? |
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(originally posted at nirmalm.com)
We’ve often heard the argument that because Democratic primary participation is disproportionately higher in a particular state, Democrats stand a chance of performing better in that state in the general election. After Alex Thurston made this argument about the upcoming Oklahoma Senate race, I decided to find out if this claim is actually true.
To validate this argument, we want to compare the percentage Democratic primary turnout (out of the total primary turnout) to the performance of the Democratic presidential candidate in the general election for each state. To account for crossover voters, it makes sense to only consider state primaries that were competitive on both sides. For simplicity’s sake I decided to look at the 2000 election, but the 1988 election would work as well. Data and full details on how I selected the states here.
Here are the states with competitive primaries:
Nirmal is an activist from Michigan who has worked with a variety of progressive organizations and campaigns. His writing can be found at nirmalm.com
