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Primary Open Thread: Thoughts and Predictions |
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It’s on in Ohio. Every other commercial on TV was a political ad. Even the little hookah place in Columbus on High Street that I hang out occasionally at is plastered with Obama ‘08 signs.
Bowers does the math:
New polls this morning from Suffolk in Ohio, Public Strategies in Texas (PDF), and Zogby in both states. Looking only at the seven Texas polls conducted since Wednesday, here is the current average in Texas:
Texas, 2/27-3/2, seven polls
Obama: 46.6%
Clinton: 45.7%
That is a real nailbiter. I think Obama will pull it out, because there are more indications that early voting favors him than Clinton, and because he tends to outperform polling more often than Clinton. However, both candidates still clearly have a shot to win the primary portion of the Texas nominating contest, which could be the difference to Clinton staying in the campaign after Tuesday, and Obama becoming the presumptive nominee.
Ohio tells a different story, one where Clinton is favored:
Ohio, 2/26-3/2, six nine polls
Clinton: 49.4%
Obama: 42.7%
What are everyone’s thoughts for tomorrow? What does it mean if Obama wins Ohio and Texas? What does it mean if Clinton wins? What margin does each need to be definitive? Isn’t Texas’s delegate system fucked up?
I’m gonna say:
Ohio:
Clinton - 52%
Obama - 47%
Texas:
Obama - 50%
Clinton - 46%
(But then Obama gets like 100 more delegates because of the messed up delegate system)
Of course it doesn’t add up to 100% in either, because magic elves take away some votes.
From my vantage point in southeastern Ohio it seems as though Obama has slightly more visible support. Driving on the backroads, though, and just looking at the landscape, I wonder whether he can beat Hillary here.
I’m not confident calling percentages. I think he may win Texas not only in terms of delegates but also just as a straight up victory. I think he’ll lose Ohio but it may be very close.
It’s also hard to separate my hopes from my rational appraisal at this point. Obviously I’d love for him to sweep everything and then have her drop out…but I think that’s pretty farfetched.
Magic elves… so true.
OHIO
Clinton 53%
Obama 46%
TEJAS
Obama 51%
Clinton 48%
Hillary gives speech that her ~12 delegate advantage in Ohio constitutes a mandate from Americans, and that she will march stridently forward.
On a not-so-intellectual-but-frustrated-note, I wish I didn’t fucking hate her campaign so much…
You are certainly not alone in that feeling, sir.
I don’t know about percentages, but I’m going Obama in Texas, Clinton in Ohio.