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McCain’s Age Problem? |
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John McCain doesn’t have a lot of things going for him. He’s way behind in fundraising. He’s out of step with the country on Iraq. He admittedly knows nothing about the economy. And he’ll be up against a Democratic candidate (no matter which we choose) who will have more star power and infrastructure behind them than the “moderate” Republican can muster.
But is McCain’s age a liability?
John McCain was born on August 29th, 1936. By the time the general election kicks into full swing, he will be 72. His opponents are considerably younger. Hillary Clinton will be 61 in October. Barack Obama will be 47.
It is hard to say whether a candidate’s age has played a factor in the general election. Correlation, of course, does not equal causation. Taking a look at the statistics going back to 1952, a pattern does emerge:
| Democratic Candidate (Age at the time) | Republican Candidate (Age at the time) | Winner (years older or younger than opponent) |
| John Kerry (61) | George W. Bush (58) | George W. Bush (-3) |
| Al Gore (52) | George W. Bush (54) | George W. Bush (+2) |
| Bill Clinton (50) | Bob Dole (73) | Bill Clinton (-23) |
| Bill Clinton (46) | George H.W. Bush (68) | Bill Clinton (-22) |
| Michael Dukakis (55) | George H.W. Bush (64) | George H.W. Bush (+9) |
| Walter Mondale (56) | Ronald Reagan (73) | Ronald Reagan (+17) |
| Jimmy Carter (56) | Ronald Reagan (69) | Ronald Reagan (+13) |
| Jimmy Carter (52) | Gerald Ford (63) | Jimmy Carter (-11) |
| George McGovern (50) | Richard Nixon (59) | Richard Nixon (+9) |
| Hubert Humphrey (57) | Richard Nixon (55) | Richard Nixon (-2) |
| Lyndon Johnson (56) | Barry Goldwater (55) | Lyndon Johnson (+1) |
| John F. Kennedy (43) | Richard Nixon (47) | John F. Kennedy (-4) |
| Adlai Stevenson (56) | Dwight D. Eisenhower (66) | Dwight D. Eisenhower (+10) |
| Adlai Stevenson (52) | Dwight D. Eisenhower (62) | Dwight D. Eisenhower (+10) |
Republican candidates who win are almost as a rule older then their opponents. Democrats who win are younger than theirs. In a match-up against Obama or Clinton, McCain would then be playing into this pattern. If he was younger than his Democratic rivals, I’d be tempted to say he was at a disadvantage, given the history. But he’s not, so it’s hard to say given this data whether age will be a factor.
Nevertheless, older candidates typically poll lower among the general electorate:
A 2007 Pew poll, which tested the desirability of 23 personal characteristics for presidential candidates, found 48 percent of its respondents saying that they would be less likely to vote for candidates in their 70’s. This was about the same percentage who said they were disinclined to vote for a presidential candidate who was a Muslim or a former drug user. Only atheists and candidates who had never held elective office engendered more negative responses.
Bill Clinton was able to make age an effective weapon in 1996 against Bob Dole, and there is no doubt Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama won’t hesitate to use this line of attack given the opportunity.
Still, statistically speaking, it’s hard to say if McCain’s age will hurt him in the general election. The numbers as they stand seem inconclusive.
Have you seen any polls or historical statistics that say something different?
(cross posted at MyDD)Â
I’m liking your data posts.
no country for old men.
UH, I think every thing you said about McCain is right on target. I was thinking though I hope that the continuous bickering on the Democratic side doesn’t end up being a plus for McCain in the general election, ultimately causing him to win.
That would suck for America because you will have a president who will continue the war in IRAQ and someone who knows nothing about the economy. I can see a 3rd world war and an economic crash in the near future if this man wins. Harsh assumptions I know, but that’s what seems to be looming. Get it together DEMS….
I think age in terms of numbers would be less of an issue if McCain didn’t appear to be so out of touch with everything else–the economy, the war, etc. He is the embodiment of the old boys club (especially as he and George seem to have put personal differences aside for the sake of the party in recent weeks), and that makes his age an issue (if not a factor). But numbers aside, he age is not an issue because it makes him old but because it seems to put him out of touch with so many people and in touch with so many of the wrong people.
Any one catch the SNL spoof on McCain’s age last night?
Hahaha! you say: “Republican candidates who win are almost as a rule older then their opponents. Democrats who win are younger than theirs.”
Well, of course! Have you noticed that 80% of the republican candidates were older than their democratic counterparts? Thus is a replublican win, he is likely to be the older guy. Conversely, if a democrat wins he is likely to be the younger guy.
Republican candidates are older than democrat ones. THAT is the only pattern, and naturally correlates with the political stances of each party.