 |
Still Looking Bad in Zimbabwe |
 |
With tension surrounding its upcoming elections, the situation in Zimbabwe still looks grim. So if violence breaks out this weekend, don't say you weren't warned.One thing to pay attention to is that in two-round systems, the incumbent has a lot to lose if he doesn't win on the first tour. Namely, the entire opposition can unite against him in the second round, as Zimbabwe's is promising to do. That can play out badly either way - on the one hand, the opposition will read fraud (and a motive) into any first-round win for Mugabe. On the other hand, going to the second round could make matters extremely tense.And fraud appears very likely. Everybody and their mom is complaining that the elections are already looking unfair:
Both the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and independent challenger Simba Makoni accused President Robert Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party of trying to rig the ballot, using the security services to intimidate voters and depriving his opponents of air time.The US State Department criticised what it called "significant shortcomings" in the electoral process, while the London-based rights group Amnesty International said the police were intimidating opposition supporters.
But don't worry, Mugabe is "confident" that he's going to win, and he doesn't need help from the Zimbabwean people - he's counting on his buddies from the east to turn his country's shattered economy around:
He told Al Jazeera's Supa Mandiwanzira that partnerships with countries such as China and Iran were already bringing foreign currency in.The opposition, lead by Morgan Tsvangirai, has argued that it could solve the country's financial problems within 100 days with investment from the West.Mugabe also said that the government will try to lower prices and nationalise firms that fail to cut costs."They [representatives of the retail sector] will meet officials from the ministry of industry and international trade and the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe because we want them to reduce prices to those which were in effect before the salary hike [in February]," Mugabe said.The 84-year-old president has criticised daily price rises, saying they wipe out benefits from recent salary increases for teachers and civil servants.With inflation running at more than 100,000 per cent, retailers say they have no option but to raise tariffs. Mugabe accuses them of involvement in a plot to topple his government.In June last year, the ruling Zanu-PF party, headed by Mugabe, ordered businesses to halve the prices of their goods and services. Some 12,000 retailers and manufacturers were arrested during a two-month crackdown.
What a mess. Paging Kofi Annan…
It would be pretty amazing if a dictator like Mugabe did actually lose. What kind of real support does he have in Zimbabwe? The violence in Kenya seemed to be tribally based and centered around large popular support for either candidate. If Mugabe falls, I wonder if you won't get the military vs. the people…which could be a lot worse.