Top headlines all over the world are proclaiming an end to fighting in Iraq, with the Mahdi army calling a truce of some sort. From the New York Times:

The substance of Mr. Sadr’s statement, released Sunday afternoon, was hammered out in elaborate negotiations over the past few days with senior Iraqi officials, some of whom traveled to Iran to meet with Mr. Sadr, according to several officials involved in the discussions.

…

Last week, Iraq’s defense minister, Abdul Kadir al-Obeidi, conceded that the government’s military efforts in Basra have met with far more resistance than was expected. Many Iraqi politicians say that Mr. Maliki’s political capital has been severely depleted by the Basra campaign and that he is in the curious position of having to turn to Mr. Sadr, a longtime rival, for a way out.

…

But Mr. Sadr also demanded concessions, including that the government grant a general amnesty for his followers, release all imprisoned members of the Sadrist movement who have not been convicted of crimes and bring back “the displaced people who have fled their homes as a result of military operations.”

It was not clear if the government was willing to meet those demands.

As I’ve been saying all along, there is no military solution to Iraq. The Iraqi Army, backed heavily by coalition forces, was not able to hand the Mahdi Army a decisive defeat, or really any defeat at all. Instead, a political solution is being discussed.

Like any political negotiations, the proposed deal could work - or it could be broken pretty quickly. Though not discussed in the Times article, Al-Sadr is also asking for and end to “attacks and illegal arbitrary detention,” and, “working [meaningful efforts are to be made] towards the realization of development and service projects in all governates.”

Unfortunately, the Iraqi government and coalition forces’ track records with human rights, sectarianism, and development projects has been poor. Beyond the atrocities of Abu Ghraib, we have not been true to our word lately, as Alex Thurston pointed out before the latest round of fighting:

When we act in bad faith we’re only making the situation worse. Are we holding people in detention unfairly? Are we skimping on paying our allies? Maybe another factor that makes renewed violence unavoidable is our own behavior, and the behavior of the corrupt puppet government in Iraq. The Mahdi Army and the Awakenings militia cannot be expected to continue supporting us if we don’t hold up our end of various bargains.

Bottom line, Al-Sadr still has his hand on the lever. He is using his military power - which we can’t seem to blunt - to negotiate for political ends. This is positive as long as the Iraqi government abides by their promises. But if they don’t, Al-Sadr can easy call for resumed violence - and his followers will listen.

The way forward, as it has always been, is to bring Al-Sadr into the government. Declaring offensives on his followers - thugs and criminals though they may be - isn’t going to work, and going back on our agreements is only going to breed more distrust. Given our history, I wouldn’t hold out too much hope for this truce, but perhaps those ruling Iraq will finally prove me wrong.

WHAT'S NEXT?

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