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More Tension in Zimbabwe |
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As our own Alex Thurston wrote last week, there are plenty of reasons why the developments surrounding Zimbabwe's election are cause for concern. This week, despite a rise in Zimbabwe's currency (buoyed by the prospect of Mugabe's departure from power), we were provided another; results were not released on time, and the government began a crackdown on media and opposition.
This is no good. The media is the canary in the mine.
Rule number one before a tyrant cracks down; get rid of witnesses. The media's ejection seems a prelude to bloodshed, as power tries to hold onto power.
As Alex mentioned in his article, the security forces will have a large role in whatever happens in Zimbabwe. Mugabe has ceded significant power to the security sector over the years, in relation to the decline in Zimbabwe's economic condition, in an attempt to satisfy despot rule number two; keep the men with the guns happy. The Council on Foreign Relations provides an overview of the security sector and its role in Mugabe's Zimbabwe.
Observers' projections show opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai with the most votes, but less than the 50% necessary to avoid a run-off. There was speculation that "our old man" Mugabe would step down if a run-off were necessary, but now it looks like he's in it to win it.
Keep your eye on Zimbabwe, and hope for the best. This could get ugly.
***Update — opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai can read the writing on the wall.
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