We keep hearing from Bush, McCain and other Neocons how “The Surge is Working” and see how much violence is down in Iraq? That is proof that the USA is on the path to victory. But journalists Nir Rosen (New Yorker, Rolling Stone) and Michael Ware (CNN) explained that while violence is down, it is a relative number — “only” 600 Iraqi civilians are now killed each month and troops casualties have been cut in half — it is mostly due to the deals that the US as cut with the former Sunni insurgents. Big fact from the session — of the 90,000 former Sunni insurgents, 70,000 are now on the U.S. payroll at $300 a month.

Rosen and Ware spoke at the Center for American Progress on the subject From The Ground in Iraq. They have both Been in Iraq from the beginning, Ware almost continuously. Rosen, who is fluent in Arabic, has actually gone to mosques to hear sermons and spoken directly with insurgents. These two know more than all of the neocon desk jockeys in Washington combined.

What was striking about their remarks is that the concept if victory to the Administration is foreign to anyone who spends time in the streets of Iraq. Ware pointed out that the achievements over the past few months in Iraq have come with a cost. First, they come with an accommodation to former enemies — the Sunni insurgents. Ware points out that these insurgents were fighting for secular reasons, and had used military confrontation for to gain a political, not religious end. They had felt disenfranchised as they never believed they had a real seat at the table in Baghdad. These men oppose Iran, did not like Al Qaeda, and they offered the US a deal several years ago — give us more power in our localities and in Baghdad. The US representativesin Iraq insisted that the central government in Baghdad be involved in such negotiations, but these Sunnis distrusted the government, believing them to be former exiles whose loyalties were questionable. In 2008 the US agreed to terms with these insurgents that they could have gotten in 2004 — many years and many lives earlier. The result of this agreement is that the former insurgents then went after Al Qaeda, who had overplayed its hand through its religious dictates and violence. These insurgents, who had a wary alliance with these al Qaeda in Iraq sympathizers, knew “where they slept” as Ware explains, and they went after them in what essentially became an American-sponsored assassination program. The insurgents had felt they were forced to ally with Al Qaeda when the US wouldn’t listen to them, but now with the alliance, they were more than willing to go after their former partners. That fact alone should be a lesson for US optimists.

Ware also explains that the political accommodation of Muqtada al-Sadr was also essential. He says that most American officials in Iraq believe he is someone they can deal with. Al-Sadr has broad support in the Iraqi street, and has created his own militia, the Mahdi Army, he also controls 6 Ministries including the Ministry of Health. Rosen explained that the Mahdi Army was aware that the Americans were going to go after them and Al-Sadr had lost control of some of his men, making the Mahdi look more violent and out of control that he wanted. This led, in part, to the freeze.

Yes, violence in Baghdad is down over 90%, but that has less to do with the troop surge and more to do with the fact that program of sectarian cleansing is basically complete — meaning there are fewer people to kill. There are divisions and large blast walls that divide Baghdad into Sunni and Shiaareas and rarely do they mingle. The US is using former Sunni insurgents as its own patrolling security force. Ware warns that a segregated capital will have long-term political consequences. All over Iraq much of the reduction in violence is due to separation and US backing militias, warlords and fiefdoms — Iraq is now a bunch of city states with its own warlords and militias. Both Rosen and Ware emphasized over and over that Maliki has little or no power as outside of Baghdad the central government does not rule.

Nir Rosen points out that it was the Mahdi Army freeze last August that really was the reason behind the drop in violence against US troops. This also showed just how much it was the Mahdi Army and Sunni insurgents, rather than Al Qaeda, that was responsible for the violence in Iraq.

The Sunni factions are most critical to the stability of Iraq. Rosen describes how the Sunnis believe that there are two occupations — American and Iranian. They view (unfairly) all Shia to be Iranian.

The big winner form the Iraq conflict? It is Iran. They were in the best position to fill the vacuum left by Saddam and the lack of political control from the center. It is no surprise that members of the Baghdad government received the Iranian leadership so willingly. Not only is it important for them to have good relations with their powerful neighbor, but members of the central government have received in the past, or now receive, support from Iran. Even the PUK (Kurdish Political Party) has a well developed relationship with Iran. the thing to understand is that Iran is a regional superpower and while eventually the Americans will have to pull out, Iran is there forever. For the Iranian government, Iraq is where they can bleed America.

Michael Ware concluded by explaining that the war began with very heavy ideological blinkers on the ones who planned and implemented it in Washington — it took a long time, but eventually they cracked and gave way to the different tactics that are being used now. However, America is still playing a short game — election to election — its opponents are playing a generational game.

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