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Remember The Music Industry In 1998? |
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Think back to 1998.
10 years ago, there was no Napster. The .mp3 file format had only recently been released to the public. Online distribution of music was still in its infancy. But even back then, some people were starting to realize the Internet’s potential to radically change the music business.
Consider a conference called Webnoize ‘98 with this proposed topic of discussion:
“Promotion, Performance or Purchasing?”
While these were once very different agenda items for music companies, emerging technologies and the Internet have up-ended the industry’s age-old model for courting music fans. Now, established power structures are working not just to hold on to marketshare, but to take on the fulfillment roles traditionally reserved for retailers and audience aggregating roles traditionally reserved for entertainment media.
Today, in 2008, the “up-ending” power of peer-to-peer technology, online distribution, and social networking is very clear.
Record sales have fallen over 20%. iTunes is the number one music retailer in America. Major artists are giving away their music for free. The album is dead. DRM is no longer being used, EMI hired a Google exec for a top position, Jay-Z has a $150 million deal with a concert promoter and not a record label (the biggest in history), and over half of all Internet traffic is peer-to-peer related.
All in 10 years.
As the organizers of Webnoize ‘98 predicted, the Internet upset the balance of power between users, artists, and record companies, systematically giving more power to users and artists by giving them control over creation, promotion, and distribution. Mash-ups, home recording technology, social networking, and peer-to-peer file sharing are all sides of the same multi-faceted coin.
If Moore’s Law applies to online innovation, the next 10 years are going to see changes in the music industry more extreme by several orders of magnitude. If I had to guess what will happen; the old dinosaurs will evolve or perish, newly empowered artists will figure out how to make money in their new environment, and listeners will be free to sample, remix, share, and download what they want without repercussions.
Looking back to 1998, the path towards greater freedom of music online looks inevitable. The outcomes of the current battles we’re having - like those with the RIAA over copyright and piracy - will be similarly obvious looking back in 2018.
Any other predictions for music online in the next 10 years?
All I know is I get all my music from Clear Channel. If they don’t play it I don’t like it. That’s my motto. Next ten years? Online music gets over saturated with artists living in their mom’s basement playing shitty music to a camera that is broadcasting the feed online.
I know this comment is delayed but I thought I’d chime in anyways. Darwinism would have to apply to the situation too. Artists who learn how to adapt and are able to thrive even in times of incredibly low record sells will survive. Let’s just hope that they still make worthwhile music.