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Violence Erupts in Zimbabwe, Continues in Kenya |
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While Zimbabwe awaits either the results of its elections (or a judge’s order to release them), Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party and their supporters are attacking the opposition throughout the country. Violence began last week, but has now escalated into an all-out campaign of suppression.
The opposition, for its part, is calling on other African countries to intervene. But even though leaders like South Africa’s Jacob Zuma are beginning to speak out, it seems international institutions like the AU will have little power to affect the outcome in Zimbabwe. Even though the warning signs of violence, fraud, and disenfrachisement have been there for weeks now, the international consequences for Mugabe probably won’t go far beyond symbolic sanctions.
The situation in Zimbabwe raises the question of what preemptive actions the international community could take to prevent violence when it looks likely - or whether they should even consider that step in the first place. Until we develop some stronger institutions and some more explicit guidelines for how to deal with these kinds of conflicts, though, I’m afraid that even the best-intentioned world leaders will be stuck watching from the sidelines.
A grim parallel, of course, can be found to the north. The situation in Kenya doesn’t bode well either for Zimbabwe or for the future of international peacekeeping. I commend Kofi Annan’s efforts there, and his successes. But continued political deadlock is producing a dismaying resurgence of violence in the country.
Riots erupted in Kenya on Tuesday as opposition leaders announced that they were suspending talks with the government over a stalled power sharing agreement.
According to witnesses, dozens of young men stormed into the streets of Kibera, a sprawling slum in the capital, Nairobi, lighting bonfires, ripping up railroad tracks and throwing rocks at police officers in a scene reminiscent of the violence that convulsed Kenya in the wake of the Dec. 27 election.
“No cabinet, no peace!” the protesters yelled, referring to the cabinet that has yet to be formed because of bitter divisions between the government and the opposition.
The eruption was the first major riot since Feb. 28, when rival politicians signed a power sharing agreement that was billed as the only way to end weeks of bloodshed after the disputed presidential election.
Now, the international community is beginning to act on Kenya; the EU has spoken out, and others are threatening to cut aid unless a settlement is reached. These are steps many have been pushing for since the beginning of the conflict, so it will be important to see how the warnings play out. A sense of pessimism makes me doubt, though, that Kenya’s rival leaders would be fazed - or that such tactics would work on someone like Mugabe, who is already willing to sustain astronomically high levels of inflation while he kills to stay in power.
The real preventative measure, of course, would be to address the conditions of poverty and political exclusion that give rise to these situations in the first place. Without that, I’m afraid that even the most skilled diplomats and the most outspoken aid agencies might not be able to put these countries back together again. And in the absence of structural change, I’m afraid a lot more violence is still to come.
