Polls and Barrs Show Obama Now Stronger Against McCain

The Washington Post-ABC news poll that was released this evening shows a post-North Carolina/Indiana bounce for Barack Obama, with him starting to solidify support now that he is the presumptive nominee. In the head-to-head match-up between him and John McCain, Obama leads 51-44. The poll also shows that Obama's support is more committed with 32 percent of McCain's support suggesting some possibility of changing their minds, while 26% say the same about their support for Obama.

There is also evidence in the poll that age is going to be a much bigger hindrance to McCain than being African-American is to Obama. When asked if they were "entirely or somewhat" comfortable with having an African-American as President, 88% were comfortable with the possibility, with 12% suggesting some discomfort. On the other side of the coin, when asked whether they were "entirely or somewhat" comfortable with a President who entered office at age 72, only 60% expressed comfort, and 24% had discomfort, with 15% of those having "extreme" discomfort. In terms of which candidate would you trust more to handle a series of issues, Obama beats McCain on every topic, except for the "campaign against terrorism." Otherwise Obama is more trusted to handle the economy, gas prices, immigration, health care and ethics. They are basically tied when it comes to handling the war in Iraq.

The other news that will help Obama in November is the entry into the Presidential race of former Republican Representative Bob Barr of Georgia. While Barr was considered extremely right-wing when he was in Congress, he has been outspoken against the Patriot Act, the FISA expansions and most of the invasions of privacy, even doing some work with the ACLU. He left the GOP for the Libertarian Party about 2 years ago, and while he will have to beat a half-hearted attempt at the nomination by Mike Gravel, he should be the party's nominee. And if Ron Paul's showing in recent Republican primaries is an indication, Bob Barr could tip the balance to the Democrats in certain swing states. In Pennsylvania Paul got 16% of the Republican primary tally — over 128,000 votes. Not only does that show disillusionment with McCain in that crucial state, but there is enough to drain actual votes from him via a Libertarian ticket headed by Barr. Paul has gotten between 4 and 6 percent in most other states, but even if that translates to 1 or 2 percent in a general election, it could be enough to tip a state like Virginia. In Nevada the GOP state convention was actually closed down when it became apparent that the majority of delegates would have gone to Paul, leading to incredible anger among many delegates and activists. Having Bob Barr on the ballot there could really tip the scales to Obama.

Despite this good news, this presidential campaign will still be very difficult for Obama. McCain is still the strongest candidate that the Republicans could have nominated. When asked which party is best equipped to handle the country's problems, the Democrats have a 21 point lead — but Obama's lead over McCain in the same poll is just seven points. Just making sure that most of the country understands that McCain means the same Republican policies that over 80% believe have us on the "wrong track," will be the central element of the Fall campaign.

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