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On The Eve Of The General McCain Is Lagging |
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Every once in a while, I like to put things in perspective.
John McCain has had three months to run unopposed. Since locking up the Republican nomination in February, he’s been free to tour the country, pander to his base, and fundraise without much media scrutiny. But as the primary wraps up and the media gets its nose out of the Democratic fight, it’s becoming painfully clear McCain hasn’t made a lot of the time that was given to him.
Since February, John McCain has been doing two main things: making speeches and raising money. He hasn’t been particularly good at either of them.
He’s made numerous “big” policy speeches - on topics such as the economy, foreign policy, and the environment - and taken a few choreographed “tours” around the country - his environmental tour, his “forgotten places” tour. By and large, these media events have been received with mixed reviews. His economic proposals have been ridiculed as being half-baked. And his town halls and speeches have been met with hostile crowds.Â
Overall, McCain has done little of what he was supposed to be doing:
- McCain’s fundraising numbers for April were slightly over half of Obama’s: $18 million to $31 million.
- In the uncontested Republican primaries, McCain has been subject to a significant protest vote from dissatisfied GOP voters.
- McCain’s tracking poll numbers haven’t improved against Obama, even without opposition.
There are other troubling indicators, too.
- Over the last week, the vaulted McCain brand has taken a big hit. McCain has had to fire high-profile lobbyists from key positions in his campaign, and is currently re-vetting his entire staff. More resignations are likely.Â
- McCain has had to reject two pastors who’s endorsements he sought, bringing into question his judgement and pissing off religious conservatives.Â
- It looks like McCain will have a spoiler on the right in the form of libertarian Bob Barr.
- And, as Todd Beeton points out, the sitting Republican President and the Republican nominee can’t fill a stadium for a fundraiser in McCain’s home town!
The GOP establishment is worried:
In interviews, some party leaders said they were worried about signs of disorder in his campaign, and if the focus in the last several weeks on the prominent role of lobbyists in Mr. McCain’s inner circle might undercut the heart of his general election message: that he is a reformer taking on special interests in Washington.
Here’s the reality: we are making a dent.
The continuous pressure from the blogs, from citizens, and from liberal organizations like the Center For American Progress and MoveOn.org are beginning to crack the media shell that surrounds McCain. The key point: His brand is weakening. If John McCain wins in November, it will be because of his “character” and his brand. It will mean Americans still believe he’s a maverick, and not a two-faced politician who is saying anything to get elected. However, Obama is actually leading McCain as the candidate with “higher personal and ethical standards.”
As the general election gets moving, Barack Obama will start using his megaphone to go after John McCain. Democratic surrogates will be doing the same thing. There is no guarantee McCain’s going to lose this thing (check out Chris Bowers’ map if you don’t believe me), but the free ride for McCain just might be over.
He’s had three months to get his house in order and it looks like he’s sat on his hands. The real fight is starting - it looks like the old man might not be ready.
How about a little celebration, huh?
(cross posted at MyDD)
great points Jason–I think we may be seeing McCain’s high water mark, and it’s not very high. Republicans are worried, and not just at the presidential level. This could be a good Dem year–we will see, but there are definitely encouraging signs, as you point out. I can’t wait to see how things look once we have a real one on one general election campaign (oh, and the VPs too–the Rs have an uninspiring bunch to choose from)
Great points. I’m really still quite confident that once Obama is the official nominee - he will start pulling significantly ahead of McCain in the national polls (and in the important swing states.) And I think as long as Hillary doesn’t ruin everything - the Dem. convention should be a huge boost for Obama while McCain will get little from the Republican convention.
You all DO realize that Obama voted for the patriot act right? And that is a DIRECT violation of the constitution and bill of rights. You DO realize that he’s a member of the CFR and that the sole purpose of this institution is to dismantle the United States?
How can fully grown adults not read voting records and and learn to see that this man is merely towing the line of lobbyists like every other candidate.
Good luck in your future, it will be without rights, money, a place to live, anything to eat, or protection from YOUR OWN government. I feel sick to my stomach that so many can be so ignorant. Educate yourself and then look at the candidates with new eyes. Barack Obama is a black McCain.
This is not 100% accurate. See http://www.barackobama.com/factcheck/2008/01/05/fact_check_obamas_cons istent_p_1.php
Obama did not vote for the original patriot act - he wasn’t in the Senate. He did vote for re-authorizations, but those re-authorizations tempered the original bill. Now, I don’t think he should have voted for it period, but it isn’t 100% accurate to say he voted for the Patriot Act as most people understand it.
um, Concerned, the CFR is not dedicated exclusively to dismantling the United States. Not sure where you got that but, to paraphrase some a-hole on the web, “”I feel sick to my stomach that so many can be so ignorant.” As a think tank that provides information to its members (members must be US citizens according to the dictates of the organization), your leap is a quantum one. Look out Bakula, you got company!!
Wow…you’re one pissed off individual.Might I suggest an aroma therapy bath?Deal with it.You are an adult,correct?..Otherwise..I’ll leave it up to your overactive imagination.Grow up or shut up.
DEAR CONCERNED,
YOUR MOTHER THINKS YOU’RE AN ASSHOLE. I brought it down to your level you f’n super mook. Can I be a white Michael Jordan? Please? Or a white Lexington Steel? I’m just as big…….
Educate yourself - Heed your own advice there dipshit.
I guess I can write anything I want to here, the McBushes don’t use the net do they! The last thing a progressive young America needs is a bunch of out of touch rich folks at the helm fu*king things up! Look at what Georgie B did, an endless war that kills off the young blood for no apparent reason, it certainly didn’t appease his Arab buddies, in fact, I don’t think they even like him, and we still haven’t seen any Iraqi oil. Rumor has it that since we have an unbacked fiat monetary system and have recently royally screwed holders of American dollars by devaluation, Iraq is making a deal with Iran to base their oil on Euros to protect themselves, and other OPEC boys are watching closely. Chavez is already ‘in’ by the way. Russians have nothing to lose, as the American money they have is worth nothing now!
I really don’t think the Obama, Clinton, Clinton triumvirate can resolve any of this destruction that is upon us, but pray to God that they can keep us alive and show direction and mercy until the upcoming depression is over and we have passed to the other side of the Bush debacle