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Montana Poll: Obama 48%, McCain 43% |
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It only has 3 electoral votes, but if Montana turns to Obama, it could be a signal of a larger movement in the West. Barack Obama’s campaign has touted its 50 state strategy as a method for both becoming competitive nation-wide, and helping Democratic candidates down-ticket. While the entire West Coast (CA, OR, WA) should be easy plays for the Democratic nominee, Obama also has aimed at Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. But each of those states offer demographic reasons, whether it is due to hispanics, immigrants, environmentalists or the economy, that give some encouragement for the Obama campaign to invest resources in them. Montana did give Bill Clinton its electoral votes in 1992, but that was to a large degree due to Ross Perot (who got 26% in MT in ‘92) taking away votes from George H.W. Bush that year.
According to the U.S. census, Montana is 90.8% white, 0.4% black, 2.5% Hispanic, and a few percentage native American. In terms of education, 24.4% have bachelor’s degrees, about on par with the rest of the country, but nothing remarkable. But Montana is one of those states that are viewed as places where a Barack Obama would not resonate with voters. In part it may be due to his name, his race and his labeled liberalism, as well as Montana’s neighbors of Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming being safe for Republicans at the Presidential level.
But Montana has shown signs of life. While its long-term Senator Max Baucus is a Democrat, it would be a stretch to call him a progressive. Governor Brian Schweitzer is a star, however. While he is certainly pro-gun rights, his fondness for the Second Amendment goes for the entire Bill of Rights. He has made privacy a central issue and has opposed the Bush Administration’s attempts to extend wiretapping powers to every nook and cranny. Senator John Tester is a real economic populist who uses his experience as a rancher to inform himself in the real economy.
So in the Rasmussen poll just released, Obama gets 48% of Montana’s vote, while John McCain garners just 43%. Where does the Obama vote come from?
Obama leads among voters under 50, including a twenty-seven point lead among voters under 30. McCain leads among those over 50. Obama is supported by 89% of Montana Democrats while McCain gets the vote from 85% of Republicans.
So while both candidates get the same amount of their own party supporters, Obama is smashing McCain in younger voters. How surprising would an Obama win in Montana be?
It would be truly stunning if Obama could turn Montana into a competitive state this November. George W. Bush won Montana’s 3 Electoral College Votes by twenty percentage points in 2004 and by twenty-five points four years earlier. Even Bob Dole managed to win Montana, albeit by a narrow 44% to 41% margin (Ross Perot picked up 14% of the vote).
Montana, like Virginia and North Carolina, is a state that the Republicans did not even think that they had to worry about. But it may be that after eight years of the Bush Administration ruining everything that they touch, even these outposts may be listening to candidate Barack Obama.
A few percentages native american? Way to be accurate there. If you choose to acknowledge the .4% black population, don’t you think it would be appropriate to acknowledge the effects of the 6.4% American Indian population? (Which a 2 second google search would lead to the same census data that would give you the number.) Or did you look this up and then realize that would be a whole other issue affecting the poll that wasn’t important enough to discuss? Recognize your biases.
Truthfully it is because the latest census data i was using didn’t distinguish enough between Native Americans and the rest — but I wanted to acknowledge their presence even though I didn’t have the 2006 data. But I don’t think it has any bearing at all on my thoughts on the poll — the critical element is the state’s voting history and its 90% white population.