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AK-Sen: With Stevens’ Indictment, What Are the Scenarios? |
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With the Justice Department announcing today that the longest serving Republican Senator in history, Alaska’s Ted Stevens, is being indicted on seven counts of “making false statements on his financial disclosure forms,” that Senate race should tip even more favorably towards the almost-certain Democratic nominee, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. But it is possible that Stevens will not wind up being the nominee, and if that is the case, what happens to this race? Some scenarios:
- Stevens withdraws from the race before the August 26 primary– In this instance, there are five candidates who are currently challenging Stevens in the primary and they would stay on the ballot. The two best funded are former state representative Dave Cuddy, who is also a wealthy businessman who can self-fund, and political neophyte Vic Vickers, a wealthy lawyer who not only can use his own money, but has already announced a $410k ad buy through the primary basically attacking Ted Stevens’ ethics. Neither candidate has anything approaching a state-wide standing. Even though Alaska’s GOP lean has been strong in the past, the corruption scandal affecting the far reaches of the state Republican Party makes them underdogs coming out of the primary.
- Stevens wins the primary but then withdraws from the race– If Stevens wants to do this so that the state party can pick his successor, it appears that this needs to be done before September 17th. If Stevens leaves before this date, the state party can basically pick whomever they want. After that date it may be that his name can not be replaced on the ballot. This may be the scenario which would be most favorable to the state party as they could choose someone who could actually challenge Begich rather than be a sacrificial lamb. While I am no expert on Alaska’s state politics, there would seem to be only two that would be truly viable Republican candidates for this race. The first, current Governor Sarah Palin, is popular but unlikely going to want to take the demotion to Senator. The second possibility is Lt. Governor Sean Parnell who is currently challenging Republican incumbent Don Young for the at-large House seat. Now Young is under his own ethical cloud, so Parnell could possibly win the primary, but if he doesn’t he may be the right choice for the state party to take Stevens’ spot on the November ballot.
- Stevens stays in through the November election– Let me introduce to you Senator Mark Begich.
The recent polling on this race already showed that Begich was picking up steam, with a Rasmussen poll from last week giving Begich a nine point lead, 50%-41%. He also went on the air last week with a great ad, “Car Wash” which emphasizes the corruption issues enveloping Alaska’s Republican politicians.[You can view the video HERE on YouTube]Â While it is possible that Stevens may not now be the Republican nominee, Begich is in good shape to face whomever the Republican Party throws at him.
An incumbent Republican senator gets embroiled in a scandal just a few months before the election, allowing a relatively unknown Democratic challenger to rise on the national scene. Sound familiar? Perhaps Begich should be invited to speak at the convention!
Or even better - is Alan Keyes willing to move to Alaska?