Alex Thurston

Russia Invades South Ossetia

by Alex Thurston  ::  Filed Under Africa / Asia / Europe  ::  August 8th, 2008 @ 1:30 pm EST

Today saw Russian tanks and armed forces enter South Ossetia, a province of Georgia, in order to intervene in a conflict between secessionists (with ties to Russia) and Georgian troops. The BBC reports that Russian troops have fired on Georgian troops, while Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili calls the invasion an act of war.

The Seminal’s George Turner provides some background to the conflict here and here:

Kosovo’s declaration of independence destabilized the region and added fuel to the flames of other regions’ calls for autonomy, and 

in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, there is the possibility of real problems. These areas are strongly pro Russian, are being financially and militarily supported by Russia, and have Russian peacekeepers in the country under the guise of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). South Ossetia yesterday called on the world to recognize their independence citing the “Kosovo Precedent” and Abkhazia is expected to do the same next week.

What Russia will do is anyone’s guess. They have recently been backing away from reassurances made previously that they would not recognize these two regions. However they have their own problems in Cechnia that they will not want to inflame and it would look hypocritical of them to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia, given the fuss they have made about Kosovo.

If South Ossetia and Abkhazia do succeed in their independence bids, the West could easily lose a major ally in the region. Mikheil Saakashvili, the President of Georgia has staked a lot on his pro Western outlook and the dismemberment of Georgia, in part provoked by a Western act could seriously damage him. Without going to the brink of war, there would be little the West could do for Georgia.

Prescient words, it seems. So far the US has called for an immediate cease-fire, and the EU and NATO have as well. But whether it escalates from here is beyond my expertise, though I somehow doubt western powers will be keen to intervene military. Meanwhile, hundreds are dying.

Anyone with more information, please paste links in the comments section.

DISCUSSION

6 RESPONSES to “Russia Invades South Ossetia”

a.m. schmitz says  ::  August 8th, 2008 @ 1:56 pm EST

lol..why would any one intervine theres no oil there..let them go to hell in a hand basket..and cry freedom all the way..who ever heard of that country other than a fat russian looking for a cheep fuck.

Russian Citizen says  ::  August 8th, 2008 @ 5:35 pm EST

South Ossetia situation was planned and implemented by USA, it is loud and clear. Georgia started this act to involve Russian troops in this conflict right at the time of Olympic games, this is clearly act of rot provocation and attempt of USA to make Russia look like aggressor in Chinese eyes. Don’t trust USA, dont’ trust Georgia. Russian troops are there to stop kills of Russian citizens - there are 90% of russian citizens in South Ossetia. So is Russia aggressor? NO NO NO, Russia wants to stop bloodshed and keep peace.

Alex says  ::  August 9th, 2008 @ 12:29 am EST

Agree. Georgia started war against separatists at night before Olympic Games. They killed 1400 civilians. Russia has now way just to protect people. I was terribly impressed when I read CNN. they lie. Now I think there is NO DEMOCRACY IN THE USA if your main media lie.

Russian Citizen says  ::  August 9th, 2008 @ 11:24 am EST

Thanks for your opinion, thanks for watching other media to get the picture from all points of view.
About 1600 civilians are killed, and several thousands are now leaving their ruined homes. This is really sad. Who knows what will be next.

Serge says  ::  August 11th, 2008 @ 1:04 am EST

Saakashvili is a criminal beyond belief. His forces staged a full-fledged genocide of South Ossetian people. They were killing women and children by running them over with their tanks! A number of women were killed by holding their heads and shooting at their necks before the head separated. These sadists also killed a number of journalists covering the situation. They didn’t stage warfare (warfare has rules) - they staged atrocities and ethnic cleansing. Only cowards can do this, they are not men. I am not sure if targeting civilians was part of US-based training of Georgian forces just a few weeks ago but all the evidence suggests that US has intimate interests in destabilizing situation around the strong countries of the world that were its historical opponents. This way all the world’s resources can be appropriated or shipped in the “right” direction. US also wishes to engulf post-Soviet Republics into NATO. That way it could have its forces surrounding Russia. The building of anti-missile shield in Eastern Europe is not against Iran as they claim - it’s clearly against Russia. Even after all the evidence of ethnic cleansing is clearly presented to the US, they still call it Russian “occupation”. They think people are stupid and can be easily brain-washed. In fact the news is twisted every possible way to conceal the atrocities. For example, they mention “the number of people killed” but not even once have they mentioned that the Georgians killed 2000 people. Every psychological trick is used to give a twisted view of reality. In my 10 years in North America I have yet to read one positive piece of news about Russia!

For the US, Georgia is a bit similar to Iraq when it comes to its search for oil supplies. The only difference it is also trying to be its “friend” so that NATO forces can be placed there at the Russian border. It is trying to kill these two birds with one rock, which comes at Russia’s expense.

Also, make no mistake about Saakashvili. He is friends with Borish Berezovsky who once needless to say, illegally, controlled 10% of Russians money in early 90’s (Read Paul Khlebnikov’s book “The Godfather of Kremlin”; it’s no surprise the author is no longer with us). Berezovsky is also interested in destabilizing Russia as he is convicted to life in prison there for his criminal activities. In fact he himself stated that, one cannot get that rich in Russia without having to commit something illegal. Some of the personal financial transactions involved in Berezovsky’s and Saakashvili’s business endeavors were done with Chechen separatists. So both of them have places to hide, where nobody in this world would dare to find them. Berezovsky has proved to be a powerful mastermind when it comes to impacting countries’ leaders and gaining control in difficult situations. He might have a small hand to play in this situation considering how close the two are.

It should come as no surprise that the situation in South Ossetia was so much needed by parties external to Russia. Russia was left with no option but to protect its citizens.

Jason Rosenbaum says  ::  August 11th, 2008 @ 3:14 pm EST

An interesting situation. Honestly, I think Georgia’s current plight is mostly due to bad timing.

I don’t know who’s “right” or “wrong” in this situation, both Russia, South Ossetia, and Georgia seemed to be provoking each other. Still, if the US weren’t hamstrung in Iraq, and if everyone wasn’t preoccupied with the Olympics, Iran’s nuclear program, etc…, things might have gone a lot different. I don’t think the US would or should use force to defend Georgia, but the threat of force helps back up diplomacy.


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