Alex Thurston

Pakistan: Impeachment Proceedings Move Forward

by Alex Thurston  ::  Filed Under Middle East / South Asia  ::  August 11th, 2008 @ 4:00 pm EST

Musharraf is taking the impeachment charges against him seriously enough to cancel his trip to Beijing last week, and today it looks like his predicament is getting even more serious: parliamentary leaders are readying the charges against him, and they claim to have the votes necessary for impeachment. Civilian leaders still hope the president will step down before going the real proceedings begin, but according to his spokesman Musharraf will not resign.

Two points come to mind here.

First, if civilian leaders succeed in impeaching Musharraf I think it will be an embarrassment for the Bush administration, and rightfully so: they’ve picked some unsavory and unpopular friends, and many of them have been voted or driven out of office by their constituents and political rivals. Musharraf will join a club of former world leaders who paid a political price for their friendship with the Bushies. Moreover, the administration’s efforts to undermine or bully the civilian leaders may haunt them if/when control of the Pakistani front in the ‘war on terror’ shifts entirely to Zardari, Sharif et al. The next president will have to craft a more three-dimensional and transparent relationship with Pakistani leaders who want, if past indications serve as a guide for future actions, a diplomatic rather than exclusively military approach to militant elements in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

Second is the issue of accountability for coups and coup leaders. Politicians, judges, and lawyers in Pakistan are pushing hard for democratization and accountability. Many will still rightly point out that Zardari has been dogged by corruption charges and that a substantial portion of the Pakistani electorate feels disenfranchised and alienated from the political process. But impeaching Musharraf would be a big step toward greater accountability in general.

When the coup in Mauritania went down last week I raised the question, posed by a professor of mine, of whether the international environment is becoming less hospitable to coups. I think in Pakistan we could make the case that Musharraf is finally feeling some pressure from elements wanting a more regulated and transparent political process. And even in Mauritania, military leaders are already promising that new elections will take place soon (we’ll see). Does that constitute evidence supporting my professor’s hypothesis? I’m not sure, though at the very least there is more pressure on coup leaders now from organizations like the AU or other regional powers, as well as the international community in general.

As for Musharraf, I think as things stand he has real reason to worry. He could invoke emergency powers, dissolve parliament, etc, but even that route brings serious risks with it. We may yet see him fall.

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DISCUSSION

One RESPONSE to “Pakistan: Impeachment Proceedings Move Forward”

name says  ::  August 12th, 2008 @ 8:43 pm EST

I dont think you understand what is going on in Pakistan.
Musharraf saved the country when he took over.
If he did not take over either it would have turned into another Afganistan or it would have been taken over by India.
Musharraf is no idiot.
He has been accused of corruption but no one and I mean no one has shown him take a single Rupee (that can not be said of his opposition).
Pakistani politics is a filthy dirty game that is just so difficult to understand.
Musharraf is a great man; under his leadership more people are in school, more people have jobs, he has really helped steer the country to a better place.
What has his opposition done?
Nawaz Sharif stole billions of dollars from Pakistan and was convicted!
Zardari is also from a criminal from a criminal family.
The only people who want Musharraf gone are people who want to see Pakistani weak.


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