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Israel/Palestine: Olmert Tells Abbas No Refugee Return; Russia, Iran, and Israel |
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Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert stated today that Israel will not accept the return of any Palestinian refugees. This contradicts an earlier rumor that Israel might be willing to accept 2,000 refugees a year for ten years. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ office fired back with a statement calling Olmert’s stance unacceptable. Of course, even 20,000 would have been a drop in the bucket, but Olmert’s announcement carries heavy symbolic weight. It seems to me this is another nail in the coffin of any potential settlement.
In the geopolitical sphere, Juan Cole provides some helpful insights into how the crisis in Georgia affects American and Israeli maneuvering vis-a-vis Iran. To summarize, the US is discouraging Israel from attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities (perhaps out of nervousness about Russia’s reaction?), so Israel is pressuring the US to give Russia more of what they want (drop the missile shield idea, for example) in order to obtain Russian backing for isolating Iran. But with McCain’s rhetoric against Russia, it’s going to be hard for the hawks to fit all these pieces together.
The Cheney line that Russia needs to be punished, and Rice’s warning that Russia will be isolated, may make them feel good. But the US is much weaker after the increase in power of the oil and gas states like Russia and Iran this year, and isn’t in a position to “isolate” Russia without at the same time giving a lot of indirect aid to Iran.
The whole piece is worth reading. Just goes to show how everything is connected - and how we consistently misunderstand those connections.
Oh my!!!lions tigers and perfidy!