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NATO under Strain in Afghanistan |
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Rest in peace to the ten French soldiers killed recently in Afghanistan.
On the geopolitical front, Sarkozy’s visit to Afghanistan may reaffirm French commitment to Afghanistan on the symbolic level, but I doubt that substantial troop increases from France - or any European power - are forthcoming. Pledges from European NATO members for troop increases in Afghanistan remain in the low hundreds.
Increased violence exacerbates the tensions within NATO that observers have noted for months now, if not years. Reuters notes that domestic pressures in France this week mirror similar “soul-searching” in Canada the week before, when two Canadian women died in Afghanistan. The BBC informs us that morale is running low in the French army, and cites a survey indicating that “two-thirds of people [in France] believe their country had no place in the conflict.”
And with conflicts unfolding within Europe (or at Europe’s doorstep, depending on who you ask), NATO may soon have other priorities. The organization is being tested on several fronts, and may, to put it bluntly, find that Cold War organisms cannot survive in a changing international environment.
Americans - whether politicians, army commanders, members of the public, or progressives - who expect Europeans to put up significantly more troops in the near future will be disappointed. We may even see troop reductions done quietly.
Because Afghanistan isn’t getting any easier. We’re in the midst of a serious Taliban escalation, and they understand geopolitics:
The Taliban have seemingly made it part of their strategy to attack newly arriving forces, as well as those of NATO countries whose commitment to the war has appeared to waver, in an effort to influence public opinion in Europe. NATO countries have been under increasing pressure from the United States to increase their troop commitments to Afghanistan, which many have been hesitant to do.
The understanding that Europeans will not rescue us in Afghanistan should focus the domestic debate a little bit. The burden is on us to shift the strategy, escalate, or get out.
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