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The War on Terror Fails from East Africa to South Asia |
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From East Africa to South Asia, the US is disengaging in the former “hot spots” of the War on Terror. It’s a quiet admission that Bush’s foreign policy has failed.
In Somalia, regarded by the administration as the terrorist haven of the Horn, our proxies and allies the Ethiopians are talking about withdrawing after nearly two years of occupying their neighbor. In part, they blame lack of support from the West. If Ethiopia does withdraw, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Union of Islamic Courts - the Islamist group Ethiopia originally invaded in order to dismantle - regain power.
In the Middle East we’re also seeing the US pull back somewhat. Not only are the US and the Iraqi government drawing up timetables, we’re handing back control of key provinces. On September 1st Iraq will officially take back control of Anbar Province. By year’s end Iraq may control 13 of its 18 provinces. Meanwhile, increased stability in Basra could prompt the British to leave completely in early 2009. More and more, sources say that Iraqi forces are “stepping up” - even though we’re only “standing down” because we’re not wanted.
Unfortunately, the US is also pulling back from its diplomatic goals in Israel/Palestine, allowing even the slim hopes of a peace agreement by year’s end to slowly slip away. Another blow to Bush’s legacy.
Even in Afghanistan, the US is handing off some security commitments to the local government. Afghans will be taking over security in the capital, Kabul - a move that observers say is largely symbolic, and also a money pit for billions - signaling some effort to get the ball rolling on Afghan autonomy. We’re also sending foreign fighters captured in Afghanistan back to their home countries. Are these changes admissions of an inability to deal with all the problems in the War on Terror, or signs that the US army is overextended? The Christian Science Monitor asks whether handing over Anbar has more to do with “success” there, or with the urgent need to send marines from Iraq to Afghanistan.
We’ll see escalation in Afghanistan yet, I fear. And perhaps in Pakistan too. But I think what we’re seeing everywhere else - and will probably see in Afghanistan too - is, as I said at the beginning, the quiet failure of the War on Terror. A Somalia just as lawless and anarchic as it was two years ago. An Iraq where everything seems uncertain, and the capitalist paradise and democratic utopia planned by neocons in DC think tanks have become a state-driven economy and an uneasy oligarchy. An Afghanistan where the Taliban are back, as strong as before the war started. A Pakistan where the departure of our “son of a bitch” has left the country in tatters, despite the billions we’ve funneled in for “fighting terror” (aka funding it). An Israel less safe, in my reckoning, than when Clinton left office. A Palestine no closer to statehood, still partly ruled by Bush’s enemies Hamas, and a Middle East rife with tension, hostility, and uncertainty. By all of its stated goals, the War on Terror cannot count a single lasting success.
The geopolitical situation facing the next president would have been complex without Bush’s failed schemes. With them, it’s an absolute mess.
