This last week, longtime Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter left the Republican Party and became a Democrat.  Senator Specter’s party switch is a fitting bookend to the Bush era, its relationship with Congressional moderates and its unintended recasting of the American political landscape.

This was a process that began with the Vermont Senator Jim Jeffords’ bold change in party affiliation in 2001. The event was the first major political shift around George W. Bush’s first 100 days in office and threw the Senate into control of the Democrats. The move was a testament to a strategy aimed at hardening the Republican base rather than broadening the Republican tent. Bush political strategist Karl Rove assumed that the advantages of driving a deep wedge into the American electorate would outweigh the disadvantage of losing a few disengaged independents.  It was a crypto-authoritarian political strategy that emphasized majority rule to the severe detriment of minority rights.

The Rovian vision of a permanent majority for the Republican Party  built around this theory has unintentionally yielded a generational political phenomenon that could be deemed the Northern Strategy. In the early 1970s, Richard Nixon’s second presidential campaign recognized that LBJ’s ground-breaking support of the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts primed the so-called Solid South for Republican take-over. In the subsequent years, Republican politicians from John Connelly to Ronald Reagan employed coded language that played with racist undertones in order to harden Southern support for the Republican Party. Today, a Solid North is emerging, largely as a byproduct of Bush policies and Rove politics. Rove’s attempt to take the Southern Strategy national has had the opposite effect. The North East has only three Republican Senators now—all serving on borrowed time.

Looking onto a sea of cheering onlookers clad from head to toe in Obama paraphernalia, Barack Obama delivered his first speech last week as president of the United States. In his sobering speech that outlined his vision for America, Obama set realistic expectations and conveyed a sense of determination in the face of tough economic and politic times.

One of the real surprises of the speech was his emphasis on foreign policy. When President Obama framed the “midst of crisis” that we are now in, it was US commitments abroad and not the economy that he named first. As the first item on his agenda, Obama outlined five broad foreign policy and national security themes that are becoming somewhat of a road-map for how the administration will conduct itself on the world stage. The 5 themes are:

Foreign Policy will matter: The chattering classes in Washington have contended that foreign policy will be placed on the political back-burner in 2009 as the new administration faces herculean economic challenges. But President Obama called for a new era of responsibility, one that would include”responsibilities to ourselves, the nation, and the world.” And it was our responsibilities to the world that took unexpected precedence in the speech. Two days after his inauguration, President Obama chose the State Department as the first destination out of the 14 federal departments in the US government. The message? Foreign Policy will be at the heart of the Obama administration’s mandate.

A clean break from Bush: The speech was a stinging indictment of the American foreign policy leadership during the Bush era. Obama rejected what he called “the [false] choice between our safety and our ideals.” In doing so, he indicated both to the American public and the world that the Guantanamo era is coming to a close. Obama’s executive orders have been consistent with this message. From the mandate to close Guantanamo within the next year to his indication that the federal government will give states wider autonomy in regulating fuel emissions from cars, Obama is sending a signal to the world that the Obama administration is by no means a continuation of its predecessor.

Resetting America’s relationship with the Muslim world: Obama’s message to Muslims set the tone for sustained engagement between the US and the Muslim world, an engagement that will begin with Obama’s major visit to a Muslim capital in the first months of his presidency. Obama’s robust outreach to the region began in earnest this week with the President’s formal interview with the Arabic news channel Al-Arabiya, the first of his presidency. But beyond these symbolic gestures, Obama and Secretary Clinton appointed former Senator George Mitchell as Middle East Envoy as a strong surrogate for the administration. His immediate dispatch to the region demonstrates that seriousness that the administration assigns to solved the challenges that concern the Muslim world, first and foremost Middle East peace.

Lowering expectations in Afghanistan: In what may prove to be the most controversial foreign policy theme to emerge from Obama inauguration speech, President Obama began to recalibrate expectations on what is possible in the country that spawned the 9-11 attacks. Far from the establishment of a Western-style democracy, Obama indicated that his administration would set to “forge a hard-earned peace in Afghanistan” as his most pressing goal. Not only is this consistent with what is domestically possible, but it should also provide a comfortable base point for discussions with America’s NATO allies and the domestic political climate in the US. Robert Gates testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee today to deliver that message more concretely. In his testimony, Gates limited US goals to riding Afghanistan of terrorist bases. Watch for this recalibration to continue.

Smart Power is at the heart of the Obama approach to the world: In his speech, Obama called on Americans to “recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions.” This theme was echoed in what Secretary of State Clinton called the three D’s: diplomacy, development and defense. Of the so-called three D’s, two are centered in the State Department and USAID, an enormous elevation of civilian power in arsenal of tools that the US will use to engage the world. Watch for a more balanced approach to international relations to take shape in 2009.

Before Obama took office last week, many assumed that the president’s attention would be consumed by domestic issues. But President Obama is a man who recognizes the interdependence between domestic and international concerns. His inauguration speech and first week in office seem to have set the tone for an administration in which the US’s role in world will not be forgotten.

NATO is consistently looking for a means of reinventing itself to make it more relevant in the post-Cold War world. By boldly appointing Polish Foreign Minister Rados?aw Sikorsky as the next Secretary General of NATO, the alliance can start the process in earnest.

Right now the countries of North America and Europe are gearing up for what promises to be one of the most expectation-laden summits in NATO history. The 60^th anniversary of NATO to be held in Strasbourg-Kehl in April will be full of much anticipated milestones including the return of France to NATO’s integrated military command, the reformulation of NATO’s strategic concept,  and the first appearance of US President Barack Obama at the forum.

Hidden in the mix but not lost on close NATO watchers is the appointment of the next Secretary General to the alliance. Current NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer will step down in mid-2009 and his departure has prompted speculative murmurs of who might be in line to replace him. For months, conventional wisdom seemed to be coalescing around Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen. Rasmussen is a safe choice for the alliance as he is both an experienced statesman and well-networked politician with tested management cred within the European Union. In fact, his ability to triage between powerful players in Europe made him a likely candidate for the first EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (had the Lisbon Treaty come into force).

Now, the dynamic Radoslow Sikorski is emerging as a strong contender for the position. The steely-eyed, young Sikorski is Poland’s current foreign minister and was once considered a dark horse candidate. But the suggestion is beginning to gain traction in political circles of Central Europe.  Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has tried to get in front of the back-channel jockeying over the next NATO Secretary General by openly suggesting that the time for a new member-state to hold the position had come and Sikorski would be ideal. Opposition leader and former PM, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, has imphatically endorsed the suggestion saying that it would be in the national interest of Poland to have Sikorski at the helm of NATO.

Speaking on the transatlantic security challenges at the Atlantic Council in late November 2008, Sikorski demonstrated that he can be a highly effective communicator to a Washington audience while conveying strong political point of view that that is representative of his country and region. Sikorski’s ties to the United States are numerous and complex. The 45 year old is married to AEI fellow and prominent foreign policy thinker Anne Applebaum, a Russoskeptic, self-declared Thatcherite and tepid backer of candidate Barack Obama. 

But the real power of his nomination would be for Europe, itself. Despite the two decades past since the end of the Cold War and 5 years since EU enlargement, the European appointees to major international institutions are all still from Western Europe, primarily from France (the WTO secretary general is French; IMF managing director is French; the current NATO secretary general is Dutch; the EU High Commissioner is Spanish; the EU Commission President is Portuguese; the ECB president is French).   

It is time for the US and the traditional states of Europe to open up positions of leadership to people of new backgrounds. Both pro-American and pro-European, Sikorski would represent a bold recasting of NATO and its role in the post-Cold War world. A Sikorsk appointment would break the mold of traditional cleavages in European and transatlantic relations. In a year of change from the Obama inauguration to the reexamination of the strategic concept, Sikorski’s appointment would resonate strongly within the halls of NATO headquarters that this is not your father’s NATO.

Add one more item to the growing list of admirable qualities that President-elect Obama possesses: he is an avid fitness buff. Obama uses his daily trips to the gym as a cathartic outlet, where he can isolate himself, think uninterruptedly and vent some of the frustration and stress that inevitability plagues the man’s life who will soon be responsible for US action in everything from the pending healthcare crisis to escalating violence in the Gaza Strip. With the weight of the world on his shoulders, Obama’s visits to the gym have been known to total up to three times a day.

Since fall, Obama has gone to the gym every day uninterrupted for 48 days. In fact, many commentators have somewhat wryly pointed out that Obama has spent more Sundays at the gym than at church. As a fawning recent article in the Washington Post attests, one of the biggest “Changes” to come to Obama over the course of this past year has been in his physique. In fact, his daily 90 minute routines have transformed him into the healthiest and fittest he’s been in years.

Obama started his rigorous training regiment while a junior at Columbia University. It transformed him mentally as well as physically, leading to a greater intellectual exploration and self-discipline.  Maybe there is one item we should all consider putting on our new year’s resolution list for 2009: the Obama workout.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, the moderate Repubican Governator of California, gave an interview on September 8 to the German weekly magazine Der Spiegel on his absence from the Republican National Convention in St. Paul and his perspective on the upcoming presidential election.

Interesting to see what Herr Schwarzenegger is saying when his audience isn’t English-speaking. The Austro-American basically stated that he wasn’t willing to be an attack dog at the Republican National Convention and that’s why he wasn’t asked to speak.

He also said that McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin as VP candidate as “a surprise” (i.e. an unwelcome one) and that he would have preferred McCain to choose someone that reinforced his quickly-eroding bipartisan image. Somebody like Joe Lieberman, Schwarzenegger said. Bet he’s having a difficult time with an Earmark Princess and climate change skeptic like Palin being on the Republican ticket.

Moreover, while Schwarzenegger reaffirms his unwavering loyalty to the Republican party, he did not close off the possibility of serving in an Obama administration. Could Schwarzenegger be a secret Obama supporter?

The leader of the UK, US’ staunchest ally in Iraq and Afghanistan, has taken an unprecedented step for a British Prime Minister and endorsed Barack Obama in his quest for the American presidency.

Gordon Brown points out the strength of a potential Obama administration in sheparding the global economy back to health. Brown, the architect of the British economic miracle which led to more than a decade of economic growth, says that, “To help prevent people from losing their home, Barack Obama has proposed a Foreclosure Prevention Fund to increase emergency pre-foreclosure counseling, and help families facing repossession.”

Most of us might remember that George W. Bush’s soul-mate, Russian strongman and quasi-dictator Vladimir Putin offered Bush his endorsement over John Kerry in 2004. Of course, the endorsement of the democratic leader of the 5th largest economy on the planet (not to mention our closest strategic partner) is probably a more coveted endorsement these days than the backing of the war-mongering nationalist, Vladimir Putin. 

The FP team in the McCain camp, furious and hurt by Brown’s backing of Obama, flooded the British embassy in Washington with vitriolic phone calls on Wednesday. Way to go McCain team….

In an important op-ed this week, Green Party member and German foreign policy titan Jurgen Trittin addressed the issue of China  head-on with all of the ambivalence that colors the debate over China in Europe. Tritten calls the “new China” a dazzling synthesis of responsive governance (the Sichaun Earthquake) and startling repression (Tibet in March). This month at the Olympics, both of these faces of China will be on display for the world to see.

While his approach to China seems to accord it a level of international standing that the Middle Kingdom has not yet earned, Trittin has staked a valiant position in one regard. On the eve of the Olympic Opening Ceremonies, he has called for a more unified China Concept in Such a consensus like the one that currently exists in Germany’s mainstream parties vis-à-vis the United States.

After all, Germany and Europe cannot remain successful players on the world stage without engaging China with the same level of comprehensiveness that they currently engage the United States. For the Europe of tomorrow, the Eurasian Relationship with Europe, China and Russia at its heart will be as important as the Transatlantic Relationship has been for the past 60 years.  

The time for a comprehensive China Concept for Germany has arrived but Trittin’s overly-conciliatory remarks fail to acknowledge that direct and frank discussion with China on areas of disagreement has yielded tangible results in recent months. The Chinese government has become more cooperative in recent months on Darfur as a direct result of fear of having the image of the Beijing Olympics smeared. This has also been the case in recent days regarding access of foreign media to internet sites that are forbidden viewing for the average Chinese.

In a country that places so much value on saving face, sometimes shaming is the most effective diplomatic tool the West has.

 

(just as powerful in Spanish)

That guiltiest of guilty media pleasures, MSNBC, has published a Republican Veepstakes that has all of the stats on potential VP nominees from “the other side” ranging from closeted homosexual and vying frontrunner, Florida Governor Charlie Crist, to closeted homosexual and long-shot contender, Texas Governor Rick Perry.

Take a look.

Your picks?

Tyson Barker works on transatlantic issues at a think tank in Washington, DC. He received his BA from Columbia University in History and German Studies in 2004 and his MA from the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, in 2007. Tyson is a former Fulbright Scholar and has received research fellowships to Taiwan and China. While Tyson knows that crooked obsession with reality TV will one day get him into trouble, he just can’t turn off an ANTM marathon.  

The past three weeks of coverage of the Sichuan earthquake disaster have brought tons of attention to this humanitarian crisis and, to the great relief of the Communist government, have deflected attention from the less-than-glowing coverage of torch run for the “Genocide Olympics.”

The human interest story du jour coming out of Southern China has been the immense number of Chinese psychiatrists that descended on the province to provide counseling to the tens of thousands of traumatized quake victims whose friends and family have died or gone missing in the quake and its aftermath. Media outlets from the BBC to ABC picked up on this curious story.

100 years ago, the emergence of a psychoanalytic literati in the coffee houses of Vienna found its match in the 19th century’s rise of a “desperate housewives” class. This was an urban bourgeoisie that became known for its ennui-driven introspection and tendency to pose for Gustav Klimt paintings. This class also ushered in the modern era.

Is Beijing today’s Vienna?

Fast forward to today and look at China. China currently has 19,000 registered psychiatrists. That is half the number of American psychiatrists but the number is rising rapidly. Treating mental distress is an essential element of compressive disaster relief but the surplus of so many well-qualified mental health professionals in China is also a sign that the Chinese coastal bourgeoisie is rapidly developing, leaving China’s rural peasantry behind. And nowhere is this more obvious than in today’s Sichuan province, where Beijing and Shanghai’s psychoanalysts are confronting a social mismatch between this modern coastal elite and a pre-modern inland plebeian class. 

Tyson Barker works on transatlantic issues at a think tank in Washington, DC. He received his BA from Columbia University in History and German Studies in 2004 and his MA from the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, in 2007. Tyson is a former Fulbright Scholar and has received research fellowships to Taiwan and China. While Tyson knows that crooked obsession with reality TV will one day get him into trouble, he just can’t turn off an ANTM marathon.